Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.52	3	2.78
	2.5	3.15	3.07
	2.72	2.98	2.77	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.4	3.13	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.57)	3.02 ↓ (3.04)	2.86 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
37%

Draw
30.6%

Defensor Sporting
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

30.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

30.3%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	77.8%	0%

Danubio - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 64.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Danubio (5.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Danubio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (C) 18. Mayada C. 2. Velazquez E. 3. Pereyra J. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 7. Cabrera E. 21. Azambuja N.	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 14. Sorondo F. 15. Frugone A. 8. Wunsch N. 6. Amaro M. 27. Juan Jorge 22. Torterolo A. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
40. Balatti F. 9. Costantino I. 28. Femia E. 15. Figueroa E. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 14. Pereira B. 4. Rinaldi M. 6. Sosa L.	33. Bruschi S. 20. Caballero M. 77. Castro F. 30. Cuello E. 7. Lozano B. . Machado L. (G) 2. Martinez D. 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 17. Rodriguez V.
Coaches
Monarriz D.	Cuello R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Juan Jorge 🟨,
37', Amaro M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Torterolo A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
52', Juan Jorge ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
56', Azambuja N. 🟨,
61', Wunsch N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
61', Machado A. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
73', Ferreira M. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
81', Cabrera E. ↓, Balatti F. ↑,
81', Peralta M. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
82', Agazzi L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
89', Frugone A. 🟨,
90+1', Rodriguez S. ↓, Figueroa E. ↑,
90+3', Bruschi S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 0.

Danubio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Defensor Sporting's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.6:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Danubio	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTTL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.25	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	2:1
27.03.25	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	1:1
05.10.24	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	1:1
30.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0
Uruguay Copa
13.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.12.23	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	0:2
14.07.23	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	2:1

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