Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 2

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3	3.1	2.2
	3.15	3.15	2.2
	3.57	3.31	2.23
	3.31	3.28	2.19	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.15
	3.36	3.15	2.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.75)	3.19 ↑ (3.11)	2.19 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
28.4%

Draw
29.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

30.1%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

29.5%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Peñarol de Montevideo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 4. Rodriguez G. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 14. Sorondo F. 15. Frugone A. 6. Amaro M. 5. Barrios G. 11. Agazzi L. 8. Wunsch N. 22. Torterolo A. 26. Montenegro B.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 36. Barboza B. 4. Gularte E. 6. Ferreira L. 27. Lucas Hernandez (C) 5. Remedi E. 13. Darias E. 77. Angulo L. 93. Laxalt D. 23. Togni G. 9. Batista F.
Substitutes
25. Abella D. 18. Alonso E. 33. Bruschi S. 20. Caballero M. 77. Castro F. 30. Cuello E. 27. Juan Jorge 7. Lozano B. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L.	19. Arezo M. 18. Barbas G. 1. Britos S. (G) 7. Cabrera J. 2. Escobar F. 99. Hernandez A. 21. Jesus Trindade 3. Lemos M. 14. Rodriguez K. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Cuello R.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Togni G. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
46', Remedi E. ↓, Jesus Trindade ↑,
46', Batista F. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Arezo M. (Penalty Awarded),
52', De los Santos G. 🟨,
58', Darias E. 🟨,
64', Gularte E. ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
70', Rodriguez G. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
71', Angulo L. ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
76', Sorondo F. 🟨,
80', Barboza B. 🟨,
80', Barrios G. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
81', Lozano B. 🟨,
84', Wunsch N. ↓, Alonso E. ↑,
84', Torterolo A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
85', Arezo M. 🟨,
87', Laxalt D. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 2, Laxalt D. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 0.

Defensor Sporting has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peñarol is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Peñarol might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:32. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.1:1.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.05.26	Central Español - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
10.05.26	Defensor Sporting - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Racing Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLTWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
21.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
11.05.26	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Platense - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1
02.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1
Uruguay Copa
15.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:0
02.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
17.11.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:0
27.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:0

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