The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Emelec 46.9%
Draw 23.7%
El Nacional 29.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
68.1%
20.4%
11.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.3%
17.8%
13.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emelec's form might have worsened.
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting El Nacional's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+12.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emelec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-16.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for El Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
29.7%
2.7%
67.6%
Emelec - El Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
37 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 11 - 29.7%). El Nacional will win (votes: 25 - 67.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 2.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for El Nacional: 52.5% – 82.7%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
AH -0.5 - El Nacional (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
1X2, 2nd Half - El Nacional (3.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH -0.25 - Emelec (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): El Nacional will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Emelec (votes: 5 - 25%). El Nacional (votes: 15 - 75%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 27. Leon F. (C) 16. Bagui Tobar D. O. 30. Castillo Saa J. L. 28. Solis M. 6. Quintero S. 25. Garces R. 55. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 58. Cortez A.
1. Chala L. (C) 5. Flor F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 18. Rivera B. 28. Puente J. 17. Velez C. 15. Cela A. 7. Chala J. 26. Mena A. 99. Reasco D. 59. Borja F.
Substitutes
26. Angulo J. 17. Ayovi J. 7. Corozo W. 70. Lara A. 79. Quinonez J. 40. Tobar B. 33. Valero M. (G) 39. Valverde J.
56. Benalcazar L. 33. Congo J. (G) 20. Guisamano J. 2. Mazamba S. 25. Montano M.
Coaches
Duro G.
Perez J. C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Cevallos J. ⚽, Fragozo L. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
54', Flor F. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Caicedo R. ⚽, Castillo Saa J. L. (A),
67', Borja F. ↓, Montano M. ↑,
68', Fragozo L. ↓, Corozo W. ↑,
71', 3 - 0, Solis M. ⚽, Corozo W. (A),
74', 4 - 0, Solis M. ⚽, Cevallos J. (A),
79', 5 - 0, Corozo W. ⚽, Caicedo R. (A),
80', Mena A. ↓, Benalcazar L. ↑,
81', Puente J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
83', Quintero S. ↓, Tobar B. ↑,
87', Cevallos J. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 2.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Emelec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
El Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.8:0.7).
Watch
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Ortiz P. (G) 
Fragozo L. 
Duro G. 
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