Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 30

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Parra P. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Teleamazonas, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	El Nacional		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3
	2.27	3.32	3.26
	2.53	3.20	2.77	Watch
	2.23	3.34	3.11	Watch
	2.33	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.35)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	3.02 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
40.8%

Draw
28.3%

Mushuc Runa
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

27%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.1%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

El Nacional - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chala L. (G) 7. Chala J. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 33. Carabali F. 15. Cela A. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 17. Velez C. 56. Benalcazar L. 10. Borja J. (C) 99. Reasco D.	25. Formento R. (G) 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 29. Quintero D. 2. Bentaberry B. 31. Mina G. 32. Orejuela C. 5. Davila E. 14. Tapiero S. 19. Gracia A. 17. Penilla C. 55. Verges J.
Substitutes
59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 27. Cifuentes J. 30. Congo J. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 2. Mazamba S. 26. Mena A. 25. Montano M. 22. Mora F. 28. Puente J.	40. Burbano R. 7. Castro S. 9. Charcopa J. 50. Cusme J. 10. Delgado B. 49. Dos Santos J. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.
Coaches
Perez J. C.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', Cela A. 🟥,
30', 0 - 1, Gracia A. ⚽,
39', Benalcazar L. ↓, Mora F. ↑,
43', Penilla C. 🟨,
45', Carabali F. 🟥,
45+5', 0 - 2, Verges J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', Gracia A. 🟨,
55', 0 - 3, Penilla C. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
57', 0 - 4, Penilla C. ⚽, Verges J. (A),
61', Verges J. ↓, Burbano R. ↑,
62', Penilla C. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
62', Gracia A. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
68', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Mena A. ↑,
68', Reasco D. ↓, Mazamba S. ↑,
76', Mina G. ↓, Cusme J. ↑,
81', Quintero D. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
85', Chala J. ↓, Puente J. ↑,
85', Borja J. ↓, De Jesus B. ↑,
88', 0 - 5, Burbano R. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),

Preview

El Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )

Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.

El Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mushuc Runa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:19. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	Emelec - El Nacional	4:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
18.09.25	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	2:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.09.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	El Nacional - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LLLWW
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Manta	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Deportivo Macará - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.06.25	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	2:3
24.11.24	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	2:2
Ecuadorian Copa
31.10.24	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	2:0
23.10.24	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	1:2
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.05.24	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	1:0
08.10.23	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	2:0
07.05.23	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	0:1

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