Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 30

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Guayaquil City		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.20	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.00	2.50
	2.70	3.20	2.60	Watch
	2.87	3.09	2.74
	2.6	3.11	2.8	Watch
	2.80	3.05	2.60
	2.72	3.04	2.68	Watch
	2.65	3.05	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.95)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	2.63 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guayaquil City
34.5%

Draw
30.1%

Mushuc Runa
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.4%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Guayaquil City will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Pinos J. (G) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. (C) 80. Gonzalez P. 20. Laurino S. 14. Arroyo D. 19. Naula A. 21. Dorregaray D. 11. Mero E.	25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 10. Mina F. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 28. Perea M. 30. Ibarra R. 7. Minda T.
Substitutes
23. Bolanos M. 51. Cabezas E. 33. Caicedo R. 7. Caicedo S. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 70. Mancilla P. 1. Napa G. (G) 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 15. Sambonino K.	11. Bazan N. 14. Caicedo E. 61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 58. Chila A. 19. Corozo B. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.
Coaches
Gavilanez P.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Mero E. ⚽, Arias R. (A),
34', Biojo R. 🟨,
36', Cusme J. 🟨,
38', Ibarra R. 🟨,
45+6', Ibarra R. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
45+11', Arias R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Mina F. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Mero E. ⚽, Ayovi Caicedo J. J. (A),
55', 2 - 1, Perea M. ⚽, Zambrano A. (A),
57', Gonzalez P. ↓, Mancilla P. ↑,
57', Arias R. ↓, Ladines Calvache E. P. ↑,
57', Mero E. ↓, Bolanos M. ↑,
65', Quinonez J. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
65', Zambrano A. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
68', Bazan N. 🟥,
70', Dorregaray D. 🟨,
73', Mancilla P. 🟨,
76', Laurino S. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
83', Angulo C. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
83', Hernandez J. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Dorregaray D. ⚽, Arroyo D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:26. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Guayaquil City won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:11. (average 2.6:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mushuc Runa - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.53%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Guayaquil City	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LLWWT
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
01.09.26	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.26	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:2
Ecuadorian Copa
06.08.25	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.23	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	3:0
18.03.23	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	4:1
19.09.22	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	4:1
30.04.22	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	2:0
21.11.21	Mushuc Runa - Guayaquil City	1:0

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