Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 29

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports 2+, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mushuc Runa		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.2	4.1	Watch
	2.05	3.10	3.25
	2.05	3	3.5	Watch
	2.17	3.11	3.79
	2.15	3.15	3.56	Watch
	1.95	3.25	4.05
	1.93	3.23	4.14	Watch
	2.06	3.05	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.85)	3.14 ↓ (3.4)	3.74 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
45.7%

Draw
29.5%

Leones del Norte
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

27.5%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

26.3%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Leones del Norte will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leones del Norte: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 7. Minda T. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 28. Perea M. 30. Ibarra R. 11. Bazan N.	45. Nazareno L. (G) 7. Luque M. 2. Moran J. 5. Coppo T. 23. Monserrat N. 50. Caicedo M. 29. Madero P. 70. Pazmino D. 19. Pepinos E. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)
Substitutes
14. Caicedo E. 61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 19. Corozo B. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 10. Mina F. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K. 57. Sanchez R. 9. Tufino R.	32. Aguas A. 17. Amilivia T. 15. Araujo I. 18. Arellano J. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 13. Cabeza J. 16. De La Cruz M. 14. Folleco A. 25. Kreiman B. 31. Padilla G. 34. Portocarrero S. 3. Vargas F.
Coaches
Velez P.	Cordoba M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Solano C. ⚽,
21', Madero P. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Ibarra R. (Penalty Awarded),
31', Caicedo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Caicedo M. ↓, Portocarrero S. ↑,
64', Pepinos E. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
64', Pazmino D. ↓, Aguas A. ↑,
73', Minda T. ↓, Mina F. ↑,
73', Bazan N. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
73', Perea M. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
74', Coppo T. ↓, Cabeza J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Mushuc Runa is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leones del Norte has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Mushuc Runa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Mushuc Runa - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.52%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Leones del Norte - the odds 4.25 are the expected chance of winning is 21.99%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.09.26	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
10.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Mushuc Runa	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWTTW
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Leones del Norte - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Manta - Leones del Norte	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	SD Aucas - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.05.26	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	3:1
Ecuadorian Copa
21.07.24	Leones del Norte - Mushuc Runa	0:1 penalties

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