Match Info

Liga Pro - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar (Cuenca)

Referee: Moreira E. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Deportivo Cuenca		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3	Watch
	2.30	3.00	2.80
	2.32	2.95	3	Watch
	2.46	3.04	3.3
	2.41	3.07	3.1	Watch
	2.4	2.95	3.1
	2.43	3.01	3.08	Watch
	2.32	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.24)	3.02 ↓ (3.03)	3.05 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Cuenca
39%

Draw
30.7%

Mushuc Runa
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

30.8%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

30.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferrero F. (G) 23. Guevara E. 28. Boolsen P. 6. Postel S. 37. Arboleda C. 29. Klimowicz M. 8. Vega E. (C) 14. Chacon J. 49. Gonzalez D. 43. Ordonez J. 11. Rivero G.	25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 7. Minda T. 8. Zambrano A. 5. Davila E. 28. Perea M. 10. Mina F. 14. Caicedo E.
Substitutes
88. Benalcazar C. 19. Diaz M. 53. Erique Villigua Y. H. 20. Garcia B. 10. Ibarra R. 25. Lopez A. 12. Minda E. (G) 2. Mosquera I. 3. Nardelli G. 5. Noboa D. 18. Piedra M.	61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 19. Corozo B. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K. 56. Tenorio G. 9. Tufino R.
Coaches
Bonelli D.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Cusme J. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
27', Davila E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gonzalez D. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
46', Klimowicz M. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
55', Zambrano A. 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Guevara E. ⚽, Rivero G. (A),
64', Zambrano A. ↓, Lemos L. ↑,
64', Mina F. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
69', Davila E. ↓, Tufino R. ↑,
69', Caicedo E. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
73', Rivero G. ↓, Benalcazar C. ↑,
76', Benalcazar C. 🟨,
81', Ordonez J. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Tufino R. ⚽, Perea M. (A),
88', Chacon J. ↓, Noboa D. ↑,
90+5', Carabali F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Cuenca won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:21 (averaging 1.5:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Deportivo Cuenca against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 21:5 goals (averaging 2.1:0.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Mushuc Runa - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.47%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.26	LDU Quito - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Técnico Universitario - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLWLT
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
01.09.26	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Mushuc Runa - Delfín	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.08.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	0:0
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1
27.06.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	1:0
01.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1
19.10.24	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1
26.04.24	Deportivo Cuenca - Mushuc Runa	5:0
21.10.23	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1

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