Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 5

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Dender Football Complex (Denderleeuw)

Referee: Vergoote J. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 2, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
France	DAZN France


	Dender EH		Oud-Heverlee Leuven

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.3	3.5	3
	2.48	3.3	2.78	Watch
	2.54	3.4	2.94
	2.43	3.32	2.85	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.53	3.31	3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.08)	3.33 ↓ (3.55)	2.94 ↓ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dender EH
39.3%

Draw
28.4%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.5%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

26.7%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dender EH has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dender EH's form might have worsened.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dender EH, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	21.1%	42.1%

Dender EH - Oud Heverlee Leuven Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Dender EH will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Leuven will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leuven: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Dender EH (votes: 3 - 30%). Leuven (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Dender EH (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Dender EH (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Dender EH (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Leuven (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Verrips M. (G) 5. Marijnissen L. 44. De Fougerolles L. 7. Goncalves B. 22. Fredrick B. 16. Kvet R. 11. Oratmangoen R. 88. Ferraro F. 18. Rodes N. (C) 77. Nsimba B. 17. Mbamba N.	1. Leysen T. (G) 27. Gil O. 28. Pletinckx E. 3. Dussenne N. 5. Ominami T. 30. Akimoto T. 11. Terho C. 6. George W. 8. Schrijvers S. (C) 22. Mijatovic J. 9. Traore A. K.
Substitutes
21. Cools K. 30. Dietsch G. (G) 10. Dion M. S. 20. Hrncar D. 19. Kadiri J. A. 15. Koton K. 6. Masangu K. 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 24. Viltard M.	21. Balikwisha W. 33. Maertens M. 10. Maziz Y. 20. Nsingi N. 34. Nyakossi R. 16. Prevot M. (G) 7. Verlinden T. 4. Verstraete B. 77. Vlietinck T.
Coaches
Euvrard V.	Hubert D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Ferraro F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gil O. ↓, Vlietinck T. ↑,
46', George W. ↓, Verstraete B. ↑,
58', Verstraete B. 🟨,
59', Oratmangoen R. ↓, Kadiri J. A. ↑,
59', Nsimba B. ↓, Dion M. S. ↑,
69', Terho C. ↓, Maziz Y. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Pletinckx E. ⚽, Schrijvers S. (A),
73', Dion M. S. ↓, Koton K. ↑,
77', Rodes N. ↓, Viltard M. ↑,
77', Fredrick B. ↓, Hrncar D. ↑,
78', Vlietinck T. 🟨,
80', Mbamba N. 🟨,
83', Traore A. K. ↓, Nsingi N. ↑,
89', Mijatovic J. ↓, Maertens M. ↑,
90', Maertens M. 🟨,
90+3', Nsingi N. 🟨,
90+5', Marijnissen L. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Dender EH may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Dender EH is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Dender EH: Berte M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Dender EH won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dender EH won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Oud-Heverlee Leuven - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 28.22%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.08.25	Dender EH - Anderlecht	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Sint-Truidense - Dender EH	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Standard Liège - Dender EH	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Dender EH - Cercle Brugge	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Zwolle - Dender EH	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLTT?
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
15.08.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Royal Antwerp - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:1 ✺
03.08.25	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:0 ✺
27.07.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Charleroi	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
20.07.25	Reims - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
11.05.25	Dender EH - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:0
19.04.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH	4:4
15.02.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH	3:2
09.11.24	Dender EH - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1

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