Match Info

Copa Chile - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		OHiggins

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.3	3.05	2.9	Watch
	2.37	3.3	3.07
	2.29	3.23	3.09	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3
	2.33	3.53	2.98	Watch
	2.27	3.05	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.14)	3.18 ↓ (3.24)	2.99 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
40.4%

Draw
28.9%

OHiggins
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

27.5%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

OHiggins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for OHiggins than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Deportes Concepción - OHiggins Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportes Concepción will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 21. Rodriguez N. 37. Grillo F. 29. Varas D. 31. Fuentes N. 20. Henriquez J. 16. Sandoval M. 15. Montecinos J. 32. Larrivey J. (C) 30. Espinoza E.	31. Carabali O. (G) 15. Rojas B. 22. Robledo A. (C) 21. Garrido N. 20. Diaz L. 25. Schor I. 17. Aviles T. 8. Felipe Ogaz 11. Leiva J. 9. Castillo A. 29. Yanez B.
Substitutes
27. Acosta D. 40. Caceres F. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 9. Escobar C. 19. Jara A. 8. Martinez F. 23. Riquelme C. 12. Veloso Espinoza N. (G) 17. Zambrano C.	34. Leiva B. 18. Moreira E. 27. Movillo J. 1. Pena Jorge (G) 38. Poblete J. 10. Rabello B. 30. Tapia J. 7. Toloza S. 32. Vecino T.
Coaches
Diaz F.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Montecinos J. 🟨,
45+1', Castillo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fuentes N. ↓, Davila Carvajal M. ↑,
72', Montecinos J. ↓, Jara A. ↑,
77', Sandoval M. 🟨,
79', Sandoval M. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
79', Henriquez J. ↓, Acosta D. ↑,
83', Yanez B. ↓, Toloza S. ↑,
83', Felipe Ogaz ↓, Rabello B. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Castillo A. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Deportes Concepción is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by OHiggins have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Concepción has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Deportes Concepción against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Concepción - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.62%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

OHiggins - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.27%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Cup
27.09.26	Deportes Concepción - Curicó Unido	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	Curicó Unido - Deportes Concepción	0:4 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
13.09.26	Colo-Colo - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Deportes Concepción - Audax Italiano	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWTLW
- OHiggins
Chilean Cup
27.09.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - OHiggins	1:3 ✺
24.09.26	OHiggins - Deportes Santa Cruz	2:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
13.09.26	Audax Italiano - OHiggins	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	OHiggins - Unión La Calera	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Universidad Católica - OHiggins	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
26.07.26	Deportes Concepción - OHiggins	2:0
02.02.26	OHiggins - Deportes Concepción	2:1

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