Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 28

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		San Luis de Quillota

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.2	3.4
	2.06	3.37	3.43
	2.12	3.51	3.13	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.43
	2.2	3.1	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.22)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)	3.3 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
43.8%

Draw
28.2%

San Luis de Quillota
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

28.3%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.3%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

San Luis de Quillota has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Luis de Quillota than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Deportes Concepción - San Luis de Quillota Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 31. Kimura N. 3. Carrasco D. 20. Zambrano Diego 26. Morales C. 30. Fuentes N. 11. Valdivia B. 16. Sandoval M. 19. Ovalle J. 32. Larrivey J. (C)	1. Retamal D. (G) 18. Avello G. 6. Vergara C. 3. Sarria G. 13. Munoz Alister N. 7. Juarez F. 15. Retamales J. 16. Rodriguez A. 11. Parada S. (C) 19. Molina N. 23. Albertengo G.
Substitutes
9. Escobar C. 7. Gillard A. 15. Gomez G. (G) 8. Manzo F. 23. Ojeda U. 27. Sepulveda N. 5. Silva S.	21. Araya J. 22. Bustos G. 5. Coronel F. 24. Ferreyra T. 14. Pastenes F. 26. Suazo H. 29. Veloso Espinoza N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Larrivey J. ⚽,
32', Parada S. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Molina N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fuentes N. ↓, Sepulveda N. ↑,
48', Juarez F. 🟨,
51', 2 - 1, Larrivey J. ⚽,
59', Avello G. 🟨,
65', Carrasco D. 🟨,
71', Caceres A. 🟨,
72', Morales C. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
76', Munoz Alister N. ↓, Coronel F. ↑,
77', Carrasco D. ↓, Silva S. ↑,
77', Valdivia B. ↓, Ojeda U. ↑,
80', Coronel F. 🟨,
84', Albertengo G. ↓, Pastenes F. ↑,
84', Parada S. ↓, Suazo H. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Deportes Concepción may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Deportes Concepción will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportes Concepción won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Concepción - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.44%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
11.10.25	Santiago Wanderers - Deportes Concepción	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Magallanes	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Concepción	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Deportes Concepción - Cobreloa	4:0 ✺
29.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWLWW
- San Luis de Quillota
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.10.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes Recoleta	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	San Luis de Quillota - San Marcos de Arica	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Curicó Unido - San Luis de Quillota	1:3 ✺
06.09.25	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Wanderers	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Cobreloa - San Luis de Quillota	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
06.07.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes Concepción	0:2

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