The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cobreloa 45.6%
Draw 28%
San Marcos de Arica 26.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.8%
29.3%
34%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.7%
27.2%
31.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cobreloa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cobreloa's performance.
San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Marcos de Arica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cobreloa that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Marcos de Arica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
60%
0%
40%
Cobreloa - San Marcos de Arica Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Cobreloa will win (votes: 3 - 60%). San Marcos de Arica will win (votes: 2 - 40%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 4. San Juan B. 5. Gonzalez R. (C) 6. Tapia M. 17. Tapia D. 20. Matamoros F. 21. Muga C. 32. Velazco F. 27. Sandoval M. 11. Gotti G. 37. Duma J.
13. Tapia B. (G) 15. Cubillos G. 23. Cazula A. 5. Rivera J. 34. Barboza A. 8. Barrios A. 26. Rencoret C. 4. Iturra M. 22. Donadell N. 10. Sagredo B. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C.
Substitutes
14. Aranguiz T. 8. Cornejo L. 22. Delgado A. 29. Gatica J. 10. Insaurralde C. 38. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 30. Tapia D. (G)
20. Abalos A. 33. Benavides E. 14. Guerra C. 19. Maidana A. 16. Reyes G. 1. Saracho R. (G) 11. Zedan N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Tapia D. 🟨,
31', Cazula A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Sandoval M. ↓, Delgado A. ↑,
55', Matamoros F. ↓, Insaurralde C. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Velazco F. ⚽,
60', Donadell N. ↓, Maidana A. ↑,
60', Cazula A. ↓, Guerra C. ↑,
68', Iturra M. ↓, Reyes G. ↑,
73', Duma J. ↓, Gatica J. ↑,
77', Guerra C. 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Gotti G. ⚽,
82', Sagredo B. ↓, Abalos A. ↑,
82', Cubillos G. ↓, Zedan N. ↑,
89', Velazco F. ↓, Aranguiz T. ↑,
90+4', Insaurralde C. 🟨,
90+7', Rivera J. 🟥,
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 2.
Cobreloa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
San Marcos de Arica has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, Cobreloa is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Cobreloa won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:6. (average 2.5:0.6).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Cobreloa
26
13
9
4
44:27
17
48
7
San Marcos de Arica
26
10
9
7
33:24
9
39
Last Results with these Odds
San Marcos de Arica - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 33.96%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
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Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 
Muga C. 
Velazco F. 
Zedan N. 
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