Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 8

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Leonel Sánchez Lineros (Recoleta)


	Deportes Recoleta		Universidad de Concepción

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	2.11	3.25	3.35
	2.17	3.22	3.33
	2.2	3.2	3.36	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.25
	2.15	3.22	3.27
	2.11	3.25	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.09)	3.19 ↓ (3.28)	3.32 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Recoleta
43.2%

Draw
28.9%

Universidad de Concepción
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

27.6%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Universidad de Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Recoleta than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Concepción than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vargas J. (G) 10. Arguinarena M. 17. Carvajal N. 18. Cepeda C. 9. Estigarribia G. 5. Hernandez A. 14. Lara I. 20. Lemmo I. 8. Martin F. (C) 27. Servetti C. 37. Valdes B.	17. Campestrini C. (G) 11. Gonzalez I. 4. Gonzalez O. (C) 28. Herrera I. 14. Medina C. 3. Meza I. 16. Ogaz B. 15. Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 30. Retamal D. 8. Romo J. 29. Sabando D.
Substitutes
12. Alvarado F. 7. Cisterna J. 6. Espinoza G. 21. Marin C. 13. Narr J. (G) 16. Salazar D. 19. Salinas Aguilar O.	21. Benitez F. 24. Canessa O. 6. Cordero R. 22. Lopez A. 20. Molina L. 7. Molina S. 13. Sanhueza J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Romo J. 🟨,
31', Ogaz B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Ogaz B. 🟨,
51', Arguinarena M. 🟨,
53', Sabando D. ↓, Cordero R. ↑,
61', Carvajal N. ↓, Salinas Aguilar O. ↑,
62', Romo J. ↓, Molina L. ↑,
62', Herrera I. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
66', Salinas Aguilar O. 🟨,
76', Valdes B. ↓, Cisterna J. ↑,
76', Estigarribia G. ↓, Salazar D. ↑,
78', Gonzalez I. ↓, Molina S. ↑,
83', 🟨,
85', Arguinarena M. ↓, Espinoza G. ↑,
89', 1 - 0, Salinas Aguilar O. ⚽,
90', Cordero R. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Recoleta won 3.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Recoleta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recoleta will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Recoleta won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:2 (average 1.7:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Recoleta won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:1 (average 2.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Recoleta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.04.25	Santiago Wanderers - Deportes Recoleta	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Antofagasta	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.04.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
29.03.25	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Recoleta	0:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
23.03.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Recoleta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLTTL
- Universidad de Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.04.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Concepción	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	San Marcos de Arica - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
05.04.25	Ñublense - Universidad de Concepción	2:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.03.25	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
22.03.25	Universidad de Concepción - Curicó Unido	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
12.08.24	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	5:0
31.03.24	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	0:2
14.07.23	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	1:1
28.02.23	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	2:1
18.07.22	Deportes Recoleta - Universidad de Concepción	0:0
03.03.22	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Recoleta	0:0

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