Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 12

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bueras (Santiago de Chile)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports


	Deportes Magallanes		Deportes Recoleta

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.4
	1.92	3.25	3.8
	1.91	3.31	3.95
	1.91	3.38	4.01	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	1.87	3.22	3.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.9)	3.23 ↓ (3.28)	3.73 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Magallanes
47.2%

Draw
28.3%

Deportes Recoleta
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28.2%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

26.7%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Magallanes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Deportes Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Magallanes than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Deportes Recoleta aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Recoleta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Magallanes will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Recoleta will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Recoleta (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Recoleta (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportes Recoleta will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Recoleta (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Olguin M. (G) 3. Walters A. 4. Vasquez M. 6. James J. 30. Salinas Flores H. 7. Toledo A. 10. Jorquera C. (C) 28. Guzman G. 12. Coronel S. 9. Peraza F. 20. Farfan R.	23. Salazar A. (G) 4. Tomarelli F. 14. Lara I. 16. Viveros B. 28. Rodriguez C. 6. Espinoza J. 7. Provoste B. 15. Baez F. 9. Estigarribia G. (C) 19. Sanchez P. 21. Alvarez G.
Substitutes
23. Alegre M. 2. Figueroa D. 11. Fredes M. 5. Liuzzi B. . Neira E. . Riffo M. (G) 24. Yanez F.	10. Arguinarena M. 17. Carvajal N. 18. Cepeda C. 20. Gonzalez C. 8. Martin F. 22. Vargas J. (G) 11. Viveros D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', Walters A. 🟨,
26', Salinas Flores H. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Toledo A. ⚽,
30', Peraza F. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Peraza F. ⚽,
45+1', Salinas Flores H. ↓, Yanez F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Provoste B. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
46', Lara I. ↓, Carvajal N. ↑,
55', 3 - 0, Guzman G. ⚽,
59', Alvarez G. ↓, Arguinarena M. ↑,
59', Rodriguez C. ↓, Viveros D. ↑,
64', Jorquera C. 🟨,
67', Viveros D. 🟨,
70', Baez F. ↓, Martin F. ↑,
75', Peraza F. ↓, Alegre M. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Sanchez P. ⚽,
82', Jorquera C. ↓, Neira E. ↑,
82', Farfan R. ↓, Fredes M. ↑,
82', Guzman G. ↓, Liuzzi B. ↑,
90', Fredes M. 🟨,
90+1', Espinoza J. 🟨,
90+6', Yanez F. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 2, Martin F. ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Magallanes won 3.

Magallanes has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recoleta has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recoleta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Magallanes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Magallanes won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:4. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Magallanes won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Magallanes	26	12	7	7	42:38	4	43
6	Recoleta	26	11	8	7	38:34	4	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Magallanes
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
08.05.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Magallanes	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Copiapó	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Magallanes	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Deportes Magallanes - Santiago Wanderers	2:3 ✺
11.04.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Magallanes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLT
- Deportes Recoleta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.05.26	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:0 ✺
04.05.26	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Recoleta	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Antofagasta	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Recoleta	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.07.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Magallanes	2:0
Chilean Cup
23.03.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Recoleta	2:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
22.02.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Recoleta	3:0
Chilean Cup
09.02.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Magallanes	0:1
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
03.10.24	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Recoleta	1:1
28.04.24	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Magallanes	0:1
01.11.22	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Magallanes	0:2

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