Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 7, Inter


	Deportes Tolima		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.9	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.13	3.18	4.02
	2.09	3.19	3.84	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.75	Watch
	2.12	3.17	3.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.08)	3.14 ↓ (3.19)	3.86 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
45.2%

Draw
30.2%

Nacional Montevideo
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

28.9%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Tolima: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 17. Arrieta C. 28. Lopez E. 32. Guzman S. 80. Rovira B. 18. Florez K. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.	1. Mejia L. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 4. Coates S. (C) 2. Rogel A. 21. Candido C. 30. Barcia B. 10. dos Santos A. 6. Boggio L. 14. Lodeiro N. 9. Gomez M. 20. Carneiro G.
Substitutes
30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 20. Hernandez J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 15. Nieto J. 4. Pedrozo D. 29. Sanchez N. 6. Trujillo C. 8. Valencia E. 11. Valencia J.	15. Calione P. 19. De Los Santos J. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 39. Gonzalez L. 31. Martinez R. 18. Nunez P. 77. Rodriguez N. 11. Silvera M. 25. Suarez I. (G) 8. Vera M. 27. Veron T. 32. Viera T.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', Torres Patino J. P. (Penalty Awarded),
45+7', 1 - 0, Sandoval L. (Penalty Awarded),
45+8', Sandoval L. 🟨,
45+9', Rovira B. 🟨,
45+10', Lopez E. 🟨,
45+10', Coates S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lodeiro N. ↓, Silvera M. ↑,
64', dos Santos A. 🟨,
70', Barcia B. ↓, De Los Santos J. ↑,
70', Carneiro G. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
74', Rovira B. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
74', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
74', Lopez E. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Mosquera J. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
81', Florez K. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
81', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Nieto J. ↑,
88', Boggio L. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Gonzalez J. ⚽, Sandoval L. (A),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Deportes Tolima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Deportes Tolima could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Nacional: Rodriguez L. (Red Card)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportes Tolima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.05%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pereira	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLWL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1

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