Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Albion Montevideo		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.35	Watch
	3	3.2	2.2
	2.98	3.1	2.32
	3.12	3.2	2.56
	3.29	3.16	2.26	Watch
	3	2.9	2.4
	3.05	3.04	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.49)	3.1 ↓ (3.28)	2.36 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albion Montevideo
30.5%

Draw
30%

Nacional Montevideo
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

28.5%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

27.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albion Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	42.9%	57.1%

Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaume S. (G) 25. Romero A. 2. Couture F. 24. Burdin E. 16. Alvarez J. 5. Ginella F. (C) 6. Moschion T. 27. Costa S. 10. Airala C. 9. Lopez A. 11. Toledo H.	25. Suarez I. (C) 5. Pintado J. 15. Calione P. 32. Viera T. 34. Bais F. 23. Rodriguez L. 10. Dos Santos A. 19. De Los Santos J. 27. Veron T. 11. Silvera M. 18. Nunez P.
Substitutes
30. Acosta B. 15. Alcoba P. 17. de los Santos M. 32. Figueroa T. 13. Lacoste P. 31. Lerda D. (G) 34. Pereira A. 29. Puente F. 21. Rodriguez Trezza L. 79. Roldan N.	13. Ancheta E. 26. Arady B. 30. Barcia B. 20. Carneiro G. 35. Clematte R. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 9. Gomez M. 39. Gonzalez L. 1. Mejia L. (G) 2. Rogel A.
Coaches
Nieves F.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Lopez A. (Penalty Awarded),
16', 2 - 0, Airala C. ⚽, Lopez A. (A),
31', 2 - 1, De Los Santos J. ⚽,
42', 3 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽, Airala C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pintado J. ↓, Barcia B. ↑,
46', Bais F. ↓, Rogel A. ↑,
46', Veron T. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
50', Alvarez J. 🟨,
60', Costa S. ↓, de los Santos M. ↑,
60', Alvarez J. ↓, Puente F. ↑,
60', Lopez A. ↓, Figueroa T. ↑,
61', Nunez P. ↓, Carneiro G. ↑,
68', Viera T. 🟨,
74', Toledo H. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
78', De Los Santos J. ↓, Arady B. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Rogel A. ⚽,
82', Airala C. 🟨,
86', Airala C. ↓, Alcoba P. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 9).

Albion is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Albion may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Albion won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Albion won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
16	Albion	9	1	0	8	9:18	-9	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Central Español	6:1 ✺
11.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
31.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWWTT
- Nacional Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
13.10.22	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1
21.05.22	Nacional Montevideo - Albion Montevideo	2:0

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