Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nacional Montevideo		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.55	4.65
	1.75	3.74	5.03
	1.72	3.77	4.6	Watch
	1.73	3.4	4.5
	1.74	3.61	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.73)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)	4.68 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
54.2%

Draw
25.9%

Danubio
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

25.9%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

25.2%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Nacional Montevideo - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mejia L. (G) 77. Rodriguez N. 2. Rogel A. 4. Coates S. (C) 34. Bais F. 23. Rodriguez L. 6. Boggio L. 30. Barcia B. 14. Lodeiro N. 18. Nunez P. 7. Lopez N.	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 18. Mayada C. 2. Velazquez E. 4. Rinaldi M. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 6. Sosa L. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
15. Calione P. 10. Dos Santos A. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 39. Gonzalez L. 31. Martinez R. 24. Mereles E. 5. Pintado J. 25. Suarez I. (G) 27. Veron T. 32. Viera T.	21. Azambuja N. 7. Cabrera E. 28. Femia E. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 26. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 3. Pereyra J. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Bava J.	Matosas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
28', Cavanagh T. 🟨,
39', Cavanagh T. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rodriguez L. ↓, Dos Santos A. ↑,
53', Lodeiro N. 🟥,
56', 0 - 1, Peralta M. ⚽,
61', Rodriguez N. 🟨,
66', Fernandez S. ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
66', Ferreira M. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
66', Rodriguez N. ↓, Veron T. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Rogel A. ⚽, Veron T. (A),
71', Boggio L. 🟨,
74', Rinaldi M. ↓, Jourdan M. ↑,
74', Rodriguez S. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Cabrera E. ⚽, Jourdan M. (A),
80', Peralta M. 🟨,
82', Coates S. 🟨,
83', Boggio L. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
88', Barcia B. ↓, Pintado J. ↑,
88', Lopez N. ↓, Mereles E. ↑,
90', Azambuja N. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Danubio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Nacional is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.95%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Coquimbo Unido - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Central Español	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLTL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.10.25	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
29.06.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	3:2
13.04.25	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	2:0
27.11.24	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0
13.07.24	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:6
25.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:0
15.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:3

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