Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)


	Deportes Tolima		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.55	4.7	Watch
	1.74	3.71	4.92
	1.68	3.68	5.12	Watch
	1.73	3.4	4.6
	1.73	3.52	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.98)	3.58 ↑ (3.28)	4.8 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
54.4%

Draw
26.2%

Independiente Santa Fe
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

28.5%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27.7%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Tolima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Tolima: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Deportes Tolima (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 5. Mera J. 4. Pedrozo D. 20. Hernandez J. 7. Gonzalez J. 80. Rovira B. (C) 32. Guzman S. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 9. Sandoval L. 24. Parra Osorio A.	12. Asprilla W. (G) 13. Palacios H. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 2. Juan Quintero 4. Puerta M. 20. Velasquez Y. 16. Torres D. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 14. Palacios L. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H. (C)
Substitutes
3. Angulo J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 21. Parra Y. A. 16. Reyes V. 29. Sanchez N. 6. Trujillo C. 25. Zapata N.	24. Angulo J. 19. Bustos N. 9. Fagundez F. 37. Jhon Renteria 17. Lovera M. 22. Mosquera E. 33. Nemocon C. (G) 40. Palacios M. 10. Zapata A.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Repetto P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Gonzalez J. ⚽, Hernandez J. (A),
13', Puerta M. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
19', 1 - 1, Rodallega H. ⚽, Fernandez O. (A),
40', 1 - 2, Fernandez O. ⚽,
44', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Pedrozo D. 🟨,
57', Arrieta C. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
59', Sandoval L. 🟨,
65', Palacios L. 🟨,
73', Gonzalez J. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
73', Fernandez O. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
73', Rodallega H. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Torres Patino J. P. ⚽, Mosquera J. (A),
80', Sandoval L. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
81', Mera J. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
82', Palacios L. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
83', Toscano Bassa K. D. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
87', Pedrozo D. 🟥,
90+1', Rovira B. 🟨,
90+2', Velasquez Y. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 2.

Deportes Tolima has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santa Fe is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Deportes Tolima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.1:0.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19:12	7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.22%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 3.85 are the expected chance of winning is 24.28%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
31.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
23.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
19.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTWT
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
01.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
27.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
29.11.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0
25.11.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	1:2
18.07.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1
31.01.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	0:0
29.09.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	0:0
02.06.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2
05.05.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	1:0

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