Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Universitario de Deportes		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.12	3.15	3.45	Watch
	2.17	3.05	3.67
	2.13	3.17	3.59	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.5
	2.03	3.15	3.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.08)	3.09 ↓ (3.15)	3.61 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universitario de Deportes
44.1%

Draw
30.1%

Alianza Lima
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.6%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

30%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Alianza Lima (3.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Alianza Lima (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alianza Lima (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vargas M. (G) 24. Polo A. (C) 2. Fara C. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 27. Carabali J. 16. Perez Guedes M. 6. Castillo J. 17. Concha J. 30. Alzugaray L. 20. Valera A.	1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 6. Garces R. 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 7. Gaibor F. 5. Pavez E. 27. Quevedo K. 20. Velez J. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)
Substitutes
10. Calcaterra H. 8. Fertoli H. 19. Flores E. 90. Gassama S. 33. Inga C. 99. Miguel Silveira 23. Murrugarra J. 11. Rivera J. 1. Romero D. (G)	18. Burlamaqui A. 11. Cantero A. 31. Carbajal C. 21. Cari P. 15. Castillo J. 4. Chavez G. 25. Gentile G. 9. Ramos L. 23. Viscarra G. (G)
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Advincula L. 🟨,
20', Garces R. 🟨,
40', Riveros W. 🟨,
45', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 0, Perez Guedes M. ⚽, Valera A. (A),
61', Quevedo K. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
65', Castillo J. 🟨,
66', Perez Guedes M. ↓, Miguel Silveira ↑,
72', Alzugaray L. ↓, Flores E. ↑,
72', Castillo J. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
73', Advincula L. ↓, Carbajal C. ↑,
73', Gaibor F. ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
77', Carabali J. ↓, Inga C. ↑,
78', Valera A. ↓, Gassama S. ↑,
84', Castillo E. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
90+4', Flores E. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 3.

In recent matches, Uni de Deportes has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza Lima is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Uni de Deportes might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Reyna B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Gassama S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Pavez E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Uni de Deportes won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Uni de Deportes won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.1:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. de Deportes	11	6	3	2	21:18	3	21
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
21.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Los Chankas - Universitario de Deportes	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Sporting Cristal - Universitario de Deportes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLWT
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
21.03.26	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Alianza Lima - Sport Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
24.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	0:0
05.04.25	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	1:1
26.07.24	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	2:1
10.02.24	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:1
08.11.23	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:2
04.11.23	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:1
22.07.23	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	0:0

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