Match Info

LaLiga - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	00:30	Solh Sports 1, Tolo TV
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 1
Andorra	21:00	beIN Sports 1
Angola	21:00	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	07:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	DAZN
Azerbaijan	00:00	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	02:00	Begin
Belarus	23:00	Belarus 5
Brazil	17:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	TSN+
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	15:00	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	00:00	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	04:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	01:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	21:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	05:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	02:00	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	02:00	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Madagascar	23:00	UpTV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	01:00	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	14:00	Sky Sport
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	22:00	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	09:00	beIN Connect, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	21:00	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	23:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	21:00	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Tajikistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	beIN Sports 5, S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	SCTV 22


	Deportivo Alavés		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.57	Watch
	5.4	4.15	1.6	Watch
	5.85	4.15	1.6
	6.2	4.29	1.53	Watch
	5	3.9	1.57
	5.94	4.17	1.65	Watch
	5.75	4.2	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.7 ↓ (6.21)	4.12 ↓ (4.38)	1.58 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
16.7%

Draw
23.1%

Real Madrid
60.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

15.3%

21.7%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.7%

20.9%

65.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	6.2%	86.4%

Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.25 - Real (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (70 of 81 users predict this - 86.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.96% – 93.88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 4 - 10%). Real (votes: 36 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 17. Jonny Otto 14. Tenaglia N. 5. Pacheco J. 24. Parada V. 8. Blanco A. (C) 20. Calebe 19. Ibanez P. 4. Suarez D. 21. Rebbach A. 15. Boye L.	1. Courtois T. (G) 8. Valverde F. (C) 17. Asencio R. 22. Rudiger A. 40. Valdepenas V. 15. Guler A. 14. Tchouameni A. 5. Bellingham J. 11. Rodrygo 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 22. Diarra M. 9. Diaz M. 13. Fernandez R. (G) 6. Guevara A. 18. Guridi J. 34. Manas A. 11. Martinez T. 33. Montero R. (G) 23. Protesoni C. 7. Vicente C. 3. Yusi	19. Ceballos D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 21. Diaz B. 16. Garcia G. 24. Huijsen D. 13. Lunin A. (G) 36. Martinez J. 30. Mastantuono F. 43. Mestre S. (G) 45. Pitarch T.
Coaches
Coudet E.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Parada V. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', Ibanez P. ↓, Martinez T. ↑,
67', Calebe ↓, Vicente C. ↑,
67', Rebbach A. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Vicente C. ⚽, Blanco A. (A),
76', 1 - 2, Rodrygo ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
78', Guler A. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
78', Valdepenas V. ↓, Huijsen D. ↑,
80', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
83', Rodrygo ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
83', Suarez D. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
89', Parada V. ↓, Yusi ↑,
89', Vinicius Junior ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
89', Rebbach A. 🟨,
90+3', Guevara A. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Alavés may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real is the team to beat.

There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Alexander-Arnold T. (Thigh Injury) Camavinga E. (Ankle Injury) Carreras A. (Red Card) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Endrick (Red Card) Garcia F. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Alavés: Guridi J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:42. (average 0.6:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:18. (average 0.8:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Portugalete - Deportivo Alavés	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Barcelona - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Deportivo Alavés - Celta de Vigo	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Girona - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLL
- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
07.12.25	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
30.11.25	Girona - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.04.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	0:1
24.09.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:2
14.05.24	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	5:0
21.12.23	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	0:1
19.02.22	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	3:0
14.08.21	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	1:4
23.01.21	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	1:4

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