Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Real Madrid		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.75	2
	3.6	3.65	2.05
	3.69	3.77	2.05
	3.49	3.78	2.04	Watch
	3.5	3.5	2
	3.74	3.82	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (3.08)	3.71 ↑ (3.65)	2.03 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
26.9%

Draw
25.9%

Manchester City
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

26.3%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

26.6%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28%	19%	53%

Real Madrid - Manchester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 99 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 28 - 28.3%). Man City will win (votes: 53 - 53.5%). It will Tie (votes: 18 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 43.7% – 63.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 10 - 34.5%). Man City (votes: 18 - 62.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -1.5 - Real (7.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (1.79) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Man City (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 18 - 41.9%). Man City (votes: 24 - 55.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 23. Mendy F. 8. Valverde F. (C) 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 45. Khusanov A. 3. Dias R. 15. Guehi M. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 26. Savinho 20. Silva B. (C) 11. Doku J. 42. Semenyo A. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
27. Aguado D. 17. Asencio R. 6. Camavinga E. 2. Carvajal D. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 37. Moran M. A. 38. Palacios C.	21. Ait-Nouri R. 6. Ake N. 68. Alleyne M. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 10. Cherki R. 47. Foden P. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 27. Nunes M. 4. Reijnders T. 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Valverde F. ⚽, Courtois T. (A),
27', 2 - 0, Valverde F. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
42', 3 - 0, Valverde F. ⚽, Diaz B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
46', Savinho ↓, Reijnders T. ↑,
57', Donnarumma G. 🟨,
58', Vinicius Junior (Penalty Awarded),
70', Silva B. ↓, Ait-Nouri R. ↑,
70', Semenyo A. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
70', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
76', Diaz B. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
76', Pitarch T. ↓, Moran M. A. ↑,
82', Ait-Nouri R. 🟨,
82', Haaland E. ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
83', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 3.

In recent matches, Real has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man City is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Man City could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Calf Injury) Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Carreras A. (Calf Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mbappe K. (Knee Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Kovacic M. (Heel Injury) Lewis R. (Ankle Injury) Nypan S. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Real won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 2:1.5).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Real Madrid: 10.27% Manchester City: 7.53%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Osasuna - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWLW
- Manchester City
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Manchester City - Nottingham Forest	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Manchester City - Salford City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2
19.02.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:1
11.02.25	Manchester City - Real Madrid	2:3
17.04.24	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 penalties
09.04.24	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:3
17.05.23	Manchester City - Real Madrid	4:0
09.05.23	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:1

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