Match Info

LaLiga - Round 19

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Tolo TV
Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22


	Athletic Bilbao		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.7	Watch
	4.7	3.95	1.7	Watch
	4.84	4.16	1.71
	4.83	4.22	1.7	Watch
	4.5	3.8	1.73
	4.91	4.1	1.76	Watch
	4.5	4.2	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.68 ↑ (4.12)	4.08 ↑ (3.9)	1.71 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
20.5%

Draw
23.5%

Real Madrid
56%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.1%

24.4%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

24.2%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	8.2%	84.9%

Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Athletic (4.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Real (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Real (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (60 of 70 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.51% – 93.91%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (31 of 33 users predict this - 93.94%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 8.1%). Real (votes: 34 - 91.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Simon U. (G) 15. Lekue I. (C) 3. Vivian D. 14. Laporte A. 19. Boiro A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 30. Rego A. 7. Berenguer A. 18. Jauregizar M. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 3. Eder Militao 22. Rudiger A. 18. Carreras A. 6. Camavinga E. 14. Tchouameni A. 5. Bellingham J. 8. Valverde F. (C) 10. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 48. Bujan E. 49. Garcia E. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 25. Izeta 27. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.	17. Asencio R. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 15. Guler A. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Valverde E.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Camavinga E. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lekue I. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
46', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
55', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
59', 0 - 3, Mbappe K. ⚽, Carreras A. (A),
66', Berenguer A. 🟨,
69', Berenguer A. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
69', Jauregizar M. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
69', Camavinga E. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
76', Rego A. 🟨,
78', Eder Militao ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
78', Mbappe K. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
78', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
78', Williams N. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, Real is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Navarro R. (Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Red Card) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:27. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
29.11.25	Levante - Athletic Bilbao	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Slavia Prague - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.11.25	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	4:0 ✺
09.11.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Oviedo	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLWL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.25	Girona - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid	3:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Elche - Real Madrid	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Liverpool - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
20.04.25	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
04.12.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	2:1
31.03.24	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:0
12.08.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:2
04.06.23	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
22.01.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.02.22	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	1:0

Upcoming Matches