Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	Deportivo La Guaira		Bolívar

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.38	Watch
	3.15	2.98	2.38	Watch
	3.26	3.08	2.47
	3.07	3.18	2.43	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.38
	3.42	3.1	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (2.45)	3.06 ↓ (3.25)	2.39 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Guaira
29.5%

Draw
30.9%

Bolívar
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.4%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

28%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Guaira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo La Guaira's form might have worsened.

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bolívar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Guaira than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo La Guaira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bolívar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Deportivo La Guaira - Bolívar Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Deportivo La Guaira will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Bolívar will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varela C. (G) 16. Martinez L. 24. Ortiz G. 5. Gianoli M. 20. Gutierrez J. 27. Correa J. 13. Ibarra R. (C) 10. Castellanos J. 6. Faya C. 7. Meza J. 36. Londono F.	1. Lampe C. (G) 8. Paz L. 3. Arreaga X. 27. Gariglio I. 4. Sagredo J. 11. Oyola B. 14. Robson Matheus 23. Justiniano L. (C) 80. Melgar C. A. 17. Pato Rodriguez 77. Romero D.
Substitutes
77. Arace R. 19. Ascanio G. 32. Caceres F. 14. Da Silva C. 15. Gonzalez M. 33. Hernandez N. 3. Osio D. 18. Rivas Y. 21. Rodriguez A. 12. Sanchez J. (G) 22. Sulbaran M. 9. Uribe A.	9. Cauteruccio M. 18. Chavez Cruz L. L. 5. Echeverria S. 35. Freita E. 19. Garcia J. 33. Mena F. 13. Mendez D. (G) 26. Saavedra E. 2. Sagredo J. 20. Sejas C. 6. Vaca Moreno E. 7. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Bidoglio H.	Camacho S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Meza J. ⚽, Gutierrez J. (A),
45+2', Justiniano L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gariglio I. ↓, Echeverria S. ↑,
66', Oyola B. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
72', Arreaga X. 🟨,
74', Meza J. ↓, Arace R. ↑,
74', Castellanos J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
78', Melgar C. A. ↓, Chavez Cruz L. L. ↑,
81', Ortiz G. 🟨,
84', Paz L. ↓, Cauteruccio M. ↑,
89', Londono F. ↓, Uribe A. ↑,
90', Ibarra R. ↓, Da Silva C. ↑,
90', Faya C. ↓, Caceres F. ↑,
90+3', Martinez L. 🟨,
90+3', Sagredo J. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Justiniano L. ⚽,
90+7', Uribe A. 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Deportivo La Guaira has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bolívar is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportivo La Guaira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Deportivo La Guaira has had a series of away games.

Recently, Bolívar has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There are questionable in Deportivo La Guaira: Perdomo J. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo La Guaira won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Guaira
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira	4:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Trujillanos - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Portuguesa Acarígua	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Bolívar - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TLWTT
- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
03.05.26	GVCD San José - Bolívar	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Bolívar - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.04.26	Bolívar - Real Tomayapo	6:0 ✺
21.04.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Bolívar - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Bolívar - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1

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