Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Mendoza)

Referee: Menendez A. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Independiente Rivadavia		Deportivo La Guaira

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.2	7.25
	1.39	4.45	7.9	Watch
	1.38	4.72	9.29
	1.38	4.65	8.76	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8	Watch
	1.39	4.76	9.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.44)	4.55 ↑ (4.29)	8.26 ↑ (7.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
67.8%

Draw
20.7%

Deportivo La Guaira
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

21.9%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

20.8%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Deportivo La Guaira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Guaira than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Independiente Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Independiente R will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bolcato N. (G) 36. Bonifacio E. 40. Villalba I. 42. Studer S. 14. Gomez L. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 10. Fernandez M. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S. (C) 9. Arce A.	1. Varela C. (G) 16. Martinez L. 24. Ortiz G. 3. Osio D. 20. Gutierrez J. 13. Ibarra R. (C) 27. Correa J. 8. Perdomo J. 7. Meza J. 32. Caceres F. 36. Londono F.
Substitutes
19. Atencio R. 8. Bucca L. 2. Costa L. 27. Crego D. 3. Elordi J. M. 21. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 13. Osella A. 7. Ramis V. 20. Riep A. 11. Rios G. 32. Vazquez K. A.	19. Ascanio G. 10. Castellanos J. 14. Da Silva C. 6. Faya C. 5. Gianoli M. 33. Hernandez N. 41. Lunar F. 18. Rivas Y. 21. Rodriguez A. 12. Sanchez J. (G) 22. Sulbaran M. 9. Uribe A.
Coaches
Berti A.	Bidoglio H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Arce A. ⚽, Fernandez M. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Ortiz G. ⚽, Caceres F. (A),
45', 2 - 1, Villa S. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', 3 - 1, Arce A. ⚽, Villa S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Bonifacio E. 🟨,
53', Caceres F. ↓, Castellanos J. ↑,
54', Londono F. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
54', Correa J. ↓, Faya C. ↑,
64', 4 - 1, Arce A. ⚽, Florentin Bobadilla J. I. (A),
76', Bonifacio E. ↓, Elordi J. M. ↑,
76', Sartori F. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
79', Perdomo J. ↓, Da Silva C. ↑,
79', Meza J. ↓, Rivas Y. ↑,
82', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. ↓, Bucca L. ↑,
82', Arce A. ↓, Ramis V. ↑,
87', Fernandez M. ↓, Rios G. ↑,

Preview

Independiente R has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Deportivo La Guaira is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Independiente R is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Independiente R: Macagno R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Deportivo La Guaira: Arace R. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Deportivo La Guaira: Londono F. (Injury)

We predict that Independiente R will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Ind. Rivadavia: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	5:1 ✺
20.04.26	Banfield - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Fluminense - Independiente Rivadavia	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Argentinos Juniors	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Bolívar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 WTWWW
- Deportivo La Guaira
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Trujillanos - Deportivo La Guaira	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Portuguesa Acarígua	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Bolívar - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
10.04.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportivo La Guaira	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.9 WTTWT

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