Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 21

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes (Quilmes)


	Quilmes		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	1.82	3	5	Watch
	1.93	2.85	4.4
	1.85	2.88	4.85	Watch
	1.95	2.92	5.38
				Watch
	1.95	2.8	4.8
	1.95	2.83	4.64
	1.7	3.05	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.72)	2.9 ↓ (3.08)	4.94 ↓ (5.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Quilmes
49.3%

Draw
31.9%

Alvarado
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

29.8%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

28.9%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Quilmes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Quilmes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Quilmes - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Quilmes will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Alvarado will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Quilmes (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glellel E. (G) 4. Perez F. 2. Bindella A. 6. Flores F. 3. Tevez F. 10. Carabajal G. 5. Ramirez I. 8. Kalinski E. 11. Roseti M. 7. Martinez R. 9. Belinetz O.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Ardiles F. 2. Silva K. 6. Blasi B. (C) 3. Irazoque A. 8. Bolivar A. 5. Mansilla M. 7. Martinez E. 10. Miori M. 11. Gobetto J. 9. Amilivia T.
Substitutes
13. Aranda G. 17. Capano J. 20. Coronel J. 12. Herrera L. 18. Kaprof J. 16. Mino M. 14. Padilla M. 15. Postigo J. 19. Vazquez G.	15. Aleo A. 19. Bolzicco T. 18. Borgnino M. 13. Fernandez T. 14. Gorgerino C. 12. Henricot F. (G) 17. Ortale M. 20. Ortiz D. 16. Russo F.
Coaches
Frediani N.	Vazquez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Silva K. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
45+1', Gobetto J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Irazoque A. ↓, Gorgerino C. ↑,
56', Gobetto J. ↓, Borgnino M. ↑,
58', Kalinski E. ↓, Kaprof J. ↑,
58', Carabajal G. ↓, Mino M. ↑,
69', Martinez R. ↓, Capano J. ↑,
81', Belinetz O. 🟨,
81', Belinetz O. ↓, Postigo J. ↑,
82', Kaprof J. ↓, Coronel J. ↑,
88', Bolivar A. ↓, Ortiz D. ↑,
88', Martinez E. ↓, Aleo A. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 1.

Quilmes is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alvarado has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alvarado may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Quilmes is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Quilmes won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Quilmes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Quilmes AC
Argentinian Primera Nacional
22.08.25	Quilmes - San Miguel	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Los Andes - Quilmes	1:0 ✺
11.08.25	Racing de Córdoba - Quilmes	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Quilmes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
30.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Quilmes	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLWL
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.08.25	Alvarado - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Alvarado - Güemes	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
27.07.25	Alvarado - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.03.25	Alvarado - Quilmes	0:0
22.09.24	Alvarado - Quilmes	0:0
05.05.24	Quilmes - Alvarado	1:1
17.09.22	Alvarado - Quilmes	3:0
19.09.21	Alvarado - Quilmes	0:1
10.05.21	Quilmes - Alvarado	3:4

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