Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 24

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Madryn		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	5.5	Watch
	1.72	3.1	5.15	Watch
	1.79	3.25	5.65
	1.72	3.33	5.47	Watch
	1.7	3.3	5
	1.76	3.15	5.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.23)	3.22 ↑ (2.94)	5.31 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Madryn
53.5%

Draw
28.9%

Patronato Parana
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

31.4%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

30.3%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Madryn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Madryn's performance.

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Patronato Parana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Madryn that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Patronato Parana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Madryn - Patronato Parana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonnin Y. (C) 4. Sosa A. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Postel S. 3. Martinez D. 8. Perez B. 5. Recalde F. 10. Solis N. 7. Crego D. 9. Mana N. 11. Rivero G.	1. Sosa A. (G) 2. Diaz G. 6. Bellatti S. D. N. 3. Moreyra F. 4. Rueda M. 8. Barinaga J. 5. Gallucci S. 10. Pereyra V. L. 11. Moreno E. 7. Castro F. 9. Bonansea A.
Substitutes
19. Ayala E. 16. Bustos A. 12. Hass J. (G) 18. Juncos B. 13. Mansilla M. 14. Minissale P. 17. Montagna E. 15. Pruzzo L. 20. Silba L.	20. Barolin J. 16. Enrique M. 14. Escobar I. 12. Mazza J. (G) 13. Navas J. 17. Pardo M. 15. Picco A. R. 18. Sanchez G. 19. Sombra A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Recalde F. 🟨,
33', Moreyra F. 🟨,
34', Perez B. 🟨,
34', Gallucci S. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Solis N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gallucci S. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
46', Moreyra F. ↓, Enrique M. ↑,
58', Moreno E. 🟨,
60', Mana N. ↓, Montagna E. ↑,
63', Bonansea A. 🟥,
71', Castro F. ↓, Sanchez G. ↑,
71', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Sombra A. ↑,
72', Diaz G. 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Rivero G. ⚽,
75', Rivero G. ↓, Ayala E. ↑,
75', Solis N. ↓, Juncos B. ↑,
82', Martinez D. ↓, Bustos A. ↑,
82', Perez B. ↓, Pruzzo L. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Deportivo Madryn may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Madryn is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Madryn won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.07.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Club Almagro	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	San Miguel - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
20.06.25	Racing de Córdoba - Deportivo Madryn	2:3 ✺
15.06.25	Deportivo Madryn - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TWTWT
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.07.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Maipú	1:0 ✺
11.07.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Patronato Parana - Tristán Suárez	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Patronato Parana - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.03.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Madryn	0:0

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