Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 20

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Gigante del Norte (Salta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Gimnasia y Tiro		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.10	4.33
	2.00	2.80	4.10
	2.16	2.95	3.65
	2.04	2.99	5.02
	2.24	2.86	3.63	Watch
	1.94	2.95	4.75
	1.94	3.09	4.32
	2.00	2.85	4.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.21)	2.95 ↑ (2.77)	4.23 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Tiro
46.1%

Draw
31.7%

Patronato Parana
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

33.7%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

32.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Tiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	50%	20%

Gimnasia y Tiro - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gimnasia y Tiro will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Patronato will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cosentino F. (G) 4. Galetto J. 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Aguirre J. 7. Rocca J. 5. Sivetti F. 8. Montoya W. 10. Rinaldi N. 9. Contin N. 11. Rojas F.	1. Sosa A. (C) 4. Rueda W. 2. Diaz G. 6. Moreyra F. 3. Evangelista F. 7. Picco A. 5. Bravo F. 8. Miro A. 10. Barinaga J. P. 9. Rivero H. 11. Pereyra V. L.
Substitutes
17. Capano J. 18. Gordillo J. 20. Gordillo L. 15. Montoya L. 14. Oviedo J. C. 12. Papaleo J. (G) 19. Rodriguez P. A. 13. Soto G. 16. Villarreal R.	19. Diaz D. 13. Diaz F. N. 14. Heredia F. 15. Pacco L. 20. Reynaga R. 12. Rivasseau F. (G) 16. Salega G. 18. Soldano F. 17. Villarreal V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', Rinaldi N. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Miro A. ⚽, Pereyra V. L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Rojas F. 🟨,
66', Picco A. 🟨,
69', Bravo F. 🟨,
69', Gordillo L. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Contin N. ⚽,
90+1', Picco A. ↓, Soldano F. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 16).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Patronato may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Gimnasia y Tiro has had a series of away games.

Recently, Patronato has had a series of home games.

Gimnasia y Tiro will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gimnasia y Tiro won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Gimnasia y Tiro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnasia y Tiro - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.27%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.07.26	Colegiales - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:2 ✺
21.06.26	Deportivo Maipú - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
13.06.26	Quilmes - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
05.06.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WTLWT
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.07.26	Patronato Parana - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
21.06.26	Patronato Parana - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Patronato Parana - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Patronato Parana - Tristán Suárez	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.02.26	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:2
11.07.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Patronato Parana	2:1
09.03.25	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0
Copa Argentina
24.01.23	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0

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