Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.25	Watch
	2.18	3.1	3.2
	2.21	3.22	3.55
	2.18	3.24	3.38	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.18	3.16	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.6)	3.14 ↑ (2.93)	3.36 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
42.9%

Draw
29.5%

Defensor Sporting
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

31%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

30.8%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Maldonado's performance.

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensor Sporting might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Maldonado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensor Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 33. Fuica N. 42. Fernandez J. 20. Tormo S. 28. Cartagena S. 14. Tabo C. 8. Gonzalez M. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.	1. Machado L. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 3. De los Santos G. 20. Caballero M. 15. Frugone A. 24. de los Santos L. 6. Amaro M. 10. Biscayzacu X. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.
Substitutes
9. de Leon E. 1. Freitas A. (G) 15. Gonzalez S. 11. Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 29. Mozzone E. 32. Petryk H. 17. Ramirez S. 22. Ramos J. 23. Vila A.	33. Bruschi S. 30. Cuello E. 27. Juan Jorge 7. Lozano B. 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 14. Sorondo F. 8. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Cuello R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Cartagena S. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
19', Biscayzacu X. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
20', Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 🟨,
33', Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 🟨,
40', de los Santos L. 🟨,
44', Tabo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Frugone A. 🟨,
58', De los Santos G. 🟨,
63', Tormo S. ↓, Mozzone E. ↑,
63', Ginzo J. M. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
72', de los Santos L. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
80', Fernandez J. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
80', Espindola M. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
88', Machado A. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
88', Montenegro B. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
88', Agazzi L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Tabo C. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2.

Maldonado is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Defensor Sporting has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Maldonado may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.94%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.02%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWLWW
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.09.24	Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1
08.06.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	0:2
23.03.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0
25.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	2:1
22.04.23	Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
15.10.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	0:0
29.05.22	Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1

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