Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 2

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.42	3.05	2.82
	2.41	3.22	3.14
	2.6	3.06	2.84	Watch
	2.3	3	3
	2.38	3.3	2.89	Watch
	2.45	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.29)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	2.93 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
38.6%

Draw
29.7%

Progreso
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.6%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Maldonado will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Progreso will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Maldonado (1.80) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Maldonado (votes: 2 - 50%). Progreso (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. 19. Tealde F. (C) 22. Ramos J. 28. Cartagena S. 8. Gonzalez M. 14. Tabo C. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.	1. Mehring A. (G) 16. Trasante G. 4. Paolini M. 6. Andueza F. 40. Cougo A. 8. Colombino A. (C) 17. De Leon F. 18. Silva G. 29. Fernandez N. 10. Lemmo I. 93. Sanchez D.
Substitutes
26. Correa A. 42. Fernandez J. 1. Freitas A. (G) 15. Gonzalez S. 11. Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 29. Mozzone E. 32. Petryk H. 20. Tormo S. 23. Vila A.	2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 23. Copelotti M. 7. Fernandez F. 3. Garcia F. 14. Kidd F. . Lopez N. 15. Martin M. 33. Requena A. (G) 19. Silva J. 24. Viera S.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Noble Sequeira A. M. (Penalty Awarded),
45+4', Ginzo J. M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Silva G. ↓, Viera S. ↑,
46', Fernandez N. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
46', Sanchez D. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
55', Lemmo I. 🟨,
61', 2 - 0, Noble Sequeira A. M. (Penalty Awarded),
68', De Leon F. 🟨,
68', Menosse H. 🟨,
68', Lemmo I. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
70', Menosse H. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
75', Cesar R. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
75', Cartagena S. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
78', Trasante G. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
84', Tealde F. ↓, Petryk H. ↑,
84', Tabo C. ↓, Mozzone E. ↑,
89', Cougo A. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 1.

Progreso has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:4 ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
13.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
29.11.25	Atenas de San Carlos - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Atenas de San Carlos	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Colón Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLWTW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.02.26	Progreso - Central Español	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
29.01.26	Boston River - Progreso	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:2 penalties ✺
18.01.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
15.01.26	Progreso - Atlético Tucumán	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
06.10.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	2:2
21.07.24	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1
31.03.24	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1
21.10.21	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
24.06.21	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	1:1
02.03.21	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
06.09.20	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	1:0

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