Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 24 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3	2.65
	2.52	3.15	2.62
	2.66	3.3	2.81
	2.6	3.24	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.61	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.38)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	2.7 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
36.5%

Draw
29.3%

Montevideo City Torque
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.4%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

29.2%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Montevideo City Torque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Maldonado will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Montevideo City will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Maldonado (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Freitas A. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. (C) 42. Fernandez J. 22. Ramos J. 8. Gonzalez M. 14. Tabo C. 17. Ramirez S. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.	1. Torgnascioli F. (C) 15. Busquets E. 2. Romero F. 27. Taran J. 17. Aguero E. 23. Dure L. 8. Siles P. 19. Guzman D. 18. Lecchini R. 11. Da Silva N. 30. Quintana J.
Substitutes
80. Centeno B. 9. de Leon E. 33. Fuica N. 15. Gonzalez S. 11. Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 12. Ortiz Ferreira V. F. (G) 32. Petryk H. 20. Tormo S. 23. Vila A.	32. Caceres S. 24. Kagelmacher G. 14. Kociubinski B. 20. Montes G. 31. Munoz A. 10. Obregon E. 5. Pizzichillo F. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 26. Silvera F. 4. Wurth V.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Tabo C. 🟨,
11', Lecchini R. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Ramirez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cesar R. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
46', Lecchini R. ↓, Obregon E. ↑,
56', Taran J. 🟨,
64', Quintana J. ↓, Pizzichillo F. ↑,
65', Romero F. ↓, Silvera F. ↑,
65', Dure L. ↓, Montes G. ↑,
70', Ramirez S. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
78', Busquets E. ↓, Caceres S. ↑,
80', Espindola M. ↓, de Leon E. ↑,
81', Noble Sequeira A. M. ↓, Vila A. ↑,
81', Tabo C. ↓, Tormo S. ↑,
90+4', Pizzichillo F. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 1.

Maldonado has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Montevideo City is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Montevideo City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.73%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.03.26	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
06.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWTWL
- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Central Español	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguay Copa
08.02.24	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.11.23	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	5:1
30.04.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	3:2
09.09.22	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	3:3
19.07.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	1:1
03.04.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	2:1
24.10.21	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	2:1

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