Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Cerro Largo		Deportivo Maldonado

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.88	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3	2.18
	3.39	3.15	2.31
	3.38	3.13	2.23	Watch
	3.25	2.9	2.25
	3.36	3.1	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.76)	3.03 ↑ (2.88)	2.22 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
27.8%

Draw
30.6%

Deportivo Maldonado
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

31.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

31.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerro Largo's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Maldonado's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Maldonado, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Maldonado will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Maldonado (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Maldonado (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 14. Correa L. 3. Piegas A. 16. Fracchia M. 17. Hernandez A. 7. Viera G. 15. Assis S. 8. Garcia M. 11. Anasco M. 10. Pandiani A. 9. Correa T.	25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 33. Fuica N. 42. Fernandez J. 22. Ramos J. 23. Vila A. 8. Gonzalez M. 14. Tabo C. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.
Substitutes
27. Barone B. 22. Bertocchi N. 18. Daguerre D. 20. Franca S. 24. Gonzalez L. (G) 30. Hernandez B. 25. Jourdan E. 5. Marcel S. 21. Pou J. 28. Ramos N.	80. Centeno B. 9. de Leon E. 1. Freitas A. (G) . Gonzalez S. . Lopez G. 31. Marino F. 3. Menosse H. 32. Petryk H. 17. Ramirez S. . Tormo S.
Coaches
Nunez D.	Di Noia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Noble Sequeira A. M. (Penalty Awarded),
34', Piegas A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Segovia D. ↓, Freitas A. ↑,
54', Fuica N. 🟨,
61', Freitas A. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Pandiani A. ⚽,
64', Correa L. 🟨,
64', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
72', Tabo C. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
73', Noble Sequeira A. M. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
77', Anasco M. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
77', Viera G. ↓, Pou J. ↑,
81', Piegas A. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
81', Vila A. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
87', Fracchia M. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,
87', Pandiani A. ↓, Franca S. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Daguerre D. ⚽,
90', Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 1, Correa T. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 3.

Recent form of Cerro Largo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Maldonado is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maldonado could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 0.9:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Largo - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 33.22%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.92%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.03.26	Central Español - Cerro Largo	1:3 ✺
09.03.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLL
- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
06.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
02.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Progreso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
17.10.24	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0
13.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Largo	0:1
06.12.23	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
25.06.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Largo	0:0
12.05.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Largo	0:0
07.10.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Cerro Largo	0:1
15.05.22	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0

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