Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Deportivo Merlo		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.2	2.85	2.2
	3.3	2.42	2.68	Watch
	2.98	2.70	2.62	Watch
	3.35	2.57	2.54
	3.3	2.4	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↓ (3.3)	2.59 ↓ (2.92)	2.51 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Merlo
28.3%

Draw
35.3%

Ferrocarril Midland
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

31.2%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

29.8%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Merlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Ferrocarril Midland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferrocarril Midland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ferrocarril (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrocarril (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez P. (G) 7. Aguerre F. 4. Ferreyra F. 2. Perez S. 6. Mendez E. 3. Benega S. 11. Quinteros E. 8. Mendez M. 5. Ojeda G. (C) 10. Gonzalez F. 9. Cao R.	1. Maldonado L. (G) 4. Figueroa R. 2. Castorani P. 6. Gigli L. 3. Olavarria M. 10. Campana A. I. 5. Violini N. 7. Rogoski M. 8. Frattini M. (C) 11. Molina F. 9. Vico L.
Substitutes
16. Arellano L. 19. Benitez B. 12. Ferrara G. (G) 15. Giagnone T. 17. Meza A. 14. Ordano A. 13. Sineiro C. 18. Sosa S. 20. Zeineddin N.	16. Abbruzzesse M. 15. Aguilar D. 18. Arias A. 12. Avendano N. (G) 19. Calabria G. 20. Chavez C. 17. Goyeneche J. 14. Meza F. 13. Monzon S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Mendez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Olavarria M. ↓, Monzon S. ↑,
62', Mendez M. ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
62', Benega S. ↓, Meza A. ↑,
70', Frattini M. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
70', Vico L. ↓, Abbruzzesse M. ↑,
81', Campana A. I. ↓, Calabria G. ↑,
84', Quinteros E. ↓, Zeineddin N. ↑,
86', Molina F. ↓, Chavez C. ↑,
90', Castorani P. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Super final: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 1.

Recent form of Deportivo Merlo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferrocarril is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportivo Merlo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferrocarril could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
06.09.25	Excursionistas - Deportivo Merlo	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Deportivo Merlo - Acassuso	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Brown de Adrogué - Deportivo Merlo	1:0 ✺
18.08.25	Deportivo Merlo - Argentino de Merlo	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Argentino de Quilmes - Deportivo Merlo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLTL
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera B
08.09.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Sportivo Dock Sud	3:0 ✺
30.08.25	Villa San Carlos - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Real Pilar	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	UAI Urquiza - Ferrocarril Midland	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Sportivo Italiano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
26.04.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0
27.10.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0
09.06.24	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0
Argentinian Primera C
15.03.20	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	3:1
21.09.19	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0
09.03.19	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	2:1
30.09.18	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	2:2

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