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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Merlo 34.3%
Draw 37%
Real Pilar 28.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
33.9%
31.5%
34.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.4%
31.1%
35.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Merlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)
Real Pilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Pilar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Pilar than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Pilar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
50%
0%
Deportivo Merlo - Real Pilar Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Deportivo Merlo will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Figueroa T. (G) 8. Aguerre F. 5. Benitez F. 10. Cabrera D. 2. Figueredo L. 7. Hernandez R. 11. Maguicha D. 3. Miguez L. 6. Minnicelli A. 9. Sandoval I. 4. Vallejo L.
1. Perafan P. (G) 6. Achucarro D. 11. Camargo T. 3. Franco E. 2. Gelos V. 4. Leguiza D. 7. Martin B. 5. Rios N. 9. Rodriguez E. 8. Rojas M. 10. Vergara D.
Substitutes
17. Da Rosa J. E. 19. Diaz A. 20. Gugenheim C. 14. Ibarra L. 15. Ojeda G. 18. Paez A. M. 16. Quinteros E. 12. Ratti V. (G) 13. Sineiro C.
13. Abre F. 18. Aguilar R. 16. Blanco S. 15. Crocco M. 14. Escurra N. 17. Gonzalez D. 19. Mancini V. 20. Pansardi F. 12. Sanchez S. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
5', Figueredo L. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Aguerre F. ⚽,
37', 2 - 0, Vallejo L. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Camargo T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Perafan P. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
47', Gelos V. 🟨,
51', Rodriguez E. 🟨,
56', Vallejo L. 🟨,
62', Rojas M. ↓, Blanco S. ↑,
62', Martin B. ↓, Crocco M. ↑,
62', Vergara D. ↓, Mancini V. ↑,
66', 3 - 1, Sandoval I. ⚽,
68', Vallejo L. ↓, Ibarra L. ↑,
68', Hernandez R. ↓, Da Rosa J. E. ↑,
76', Cabrera D. ↓, Ojeda G. ↑,
76', Benitez F. ↓, Quinteros E. ↑,
79', Rodriguez E. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
82', Aguerre F. 🟨,
85', Aguerre F. ↓, Sineiro C. ↑,
87', Rios N. 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 2, Blanco S. ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).
Recent form of Deportivo Merlo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Real Pilar is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Real Pilar
38
17
10
11
42:38
4
61
15
Dep. Merlo
38
10
14
14
36:51
-15
44
Last Results with these Odds
Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.91%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Real Pilar - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.56%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
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