Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Alianza Valledupar

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.62	2.98	2.82	Watch
	2.66	3.1	2.92
	2.41	3.24	2.89	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.59	3.08	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.75)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	2.84 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
36.7%

Draw
30.3%

Alianza Valledupar
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

29%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

28.4%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	57.1%	0%

Unión Magdalena - Alianza Valledupar Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mattalia J. (G) 4. Murillo D. 15. Urrego Hector 18. Molina F. 26. Tello J. 24. Cantillo F. (C) 8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 20. Giraldo J. 10. Sarmiento J. 21. Marquez R. 80. Hinojosa R.	12. Chaverra J. (G) 23. Mina L. M. 3. Moreno K. 5. Franco P. (C) 16. Saldana L. 7. Castillo J. 19. Perez L. 29. Torres E. 33. Fernandez W. 8. Munoz J. 32. Lucumi C.
Substitutes
16. Congo J. 9. Iguaran C. 23. Lastre E. 27. Lerma J. 11. Martinez M. 28. Mercado J. 3. Ramos N. 2. Sagrera W. 12. Tasso M. (G)	77. Del Valle A. 18. Garcia J. 24. Manjarres R. 10. Munoz J. 27. Parra J. 22. Suarez K. 1. Wallens J. (G)
Coaches
Silva C.	Bodhert H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Marquez R. ⚽, Murillo D. (A),
24', Hinojosa R. 🟨,
39', Marquez R. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
41', Martinez M. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Giraldo J. ↓, Mercado J. ↑,
46', Hinojosa R. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
46', Mina L. M. ↓, Del Valle A. ↑,
46', Perez L. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Fernandez W. ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
57', Colpa Bolano R. R. ↓, Iguaran C. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Lucumi C. ⚽,
65', Moreno K. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
67', Franco P. ↓, Manjarres R. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Sarmiento J. ⚽,
76', Torres E. ↓, Suarez K. ↑,
81', Cantillo F. ↓, Congo J. ↑,
86', Munoz J. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 3, Lucumi C. ⚽, Manjarres R. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 2.

Unión Magdalena has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Unión Magdalena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
20.08.25	Millonarios - Unión Magdalena	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	Deportivo Cali - Unión Magdalena	3:1 ✺
07.08.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Medellín	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WLTWL
- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
15.08.25	Alianza Valledupar - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
03.08.25	Alianza Valledupar - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:3 ✺
27.07.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Alianza Valledupar	2:2 ✺
22.07.25	Alianza Valledupar - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
08.03.25	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	1:0
26.08.23	Unión Magdalena - Alianza Valledupar	2:0
12.03.23	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	2:1
12.07.22	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	0:1
27.01.22	Unión Magdalena - Alianza Valledupar	0:0
22.09.19	Alianza Valledupar - Unión Magdalena	1:0
31.03.19	Unión Magdalena - Alianza Valledupar	1:1

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