Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: de Vivar M. D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5
World	Onefootball


	Deportivo Riestra		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.6	2.9	Watch
	2.7	2.87	2.8
	2.82	2.72	2.78	Watch
	3.06	2.74	2.86
	3.07	2.77	2.73	Watch
	3	2.63	2.7	Watch
	3.26	2.6	2.77	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	2.77 ↓ (3.25)	2.73 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Riestra
31.3%

Draw
34.1%

Grêmio
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

28.9%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

28%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Riestra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Deportivo Riestra - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Deportivo Riestra will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Grêmio will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce I. (G) 35. Stringa A. 24. Mino F. 22. Paz C. 19. Randazzo J. (C) 36. Bracamonte M. 32. Flores G. 14. Monje P. 16. Watson N. 27. Goitia J. 10. Diaz A.	1. Weverton (G) 6. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 44. Viery 7. Pavon C. 33. Perez L. 10. Willian (C) 54. Pedro Gabriel 37. Gabriel Mec 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
7. Alonso A. 34. Duarte L. 9. Herrera J. 12. Lopez I. (G) 25. Madero P. 4. Murillo Yaison 40. Obredor G. 45. Perez B. 5. Ramirez P. 15. Sansotre N. 28. Sayavedra R. 31. Smarra M.	77. Andre Henrique 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 99. Enamorado J. 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 19. Noriega E. 65. Riquelme 21. Tete 39. Tiago 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Duro G.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
25', Wagner Leonardo ↓, Fabian Balbuena ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Carlos Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
43', Viery 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Watson N. ↓, Perez B. ↑,
46', Stringa A. ↓, Ramirez P. ↑,
46', Flores G. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
46', Perez L. ↓, Noriega E. ↑,
59', 0 - 2, Amuzu F. ⚽, Gabriel Mec (A),
64', Willian ↓, Tiago ↑,
65', Amuzu F. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
66', Paz C. 🟨,
66', Diaz A. ↓, Smarra M. ↑,
72', Mino F. 🟨,
73', 0 - 3, Braithwaite M. ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
75', Pedro Gabriel ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
90+1', Mino F. ↓, Sansotre N. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Deportivo Riestra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Riestra won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Riestra - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 30.29%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.82%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Lanús - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Montevideo City Torque	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWLL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.04.26	Palestino - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0

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