Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Deportivo Táchira		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.88	Watch
	3.2	3	2.3
	2.65	2.95	2.9	Watch
	2.75	2.96	2.98
	2.73	2.93	2.93	Watch
	3.2	3	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3	2.76	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (3.84)	2.97 ↓ (3.39)	2.74 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Táchira
33.5%

Draw
31.9%

LDU Quito
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

27.9%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

27.6%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Táchira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Táchira's performance.

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and LDU Quito might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Táchira than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Táchira that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that LDU Quito could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Deportivo Táchira - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Deportivo Táchira will win (votes: 3 - 25%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Táchira (votes: 4 - 50%). LDU Quito (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Deportivo Táchira (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Táchira (votes: 6 - 60%). LDU Quito (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Camargo J. (G) 33. Hernandez N. 2. Vivas C. 22. Maidana M. 18. Rosales R. 8. Saggiomo D. 24. Requena J. 15. Cova M. (C) 10. Sosa C. 7. Castillo B. 21. Ortiz J.	1. Valle G. (G) 31. de la Cruz D. I. 4. Ade R. (C) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 33. Quinonez L. 5. Minda K. 8. Gruezo C. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 20. Cornejo F. 9. Alzugaray L. 19. Arce A.
Substitutes
1. Araque A. (G) 20. Calzadilla C. 9. Cano L. 35. Carrero L. F. 19. Castillo J. 11. Diaz D. 37. Duarte Arias J. D. 5. Fioravanti L. 4. Quintero J. 32. Sanchez J. 44. Tamiche E. 27. Zuniga L.	6. Aimar D. 10. Alvarado A. 21. Castillo E. 23. Diaz M. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 3. Mina R. 7. Pastran L. 14. Quintero J. 32. Rodriguez J. 12. Villa A. (G) 15. Villamil G.
Coaches
Perez Greco E.	Sanchez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Aimar D. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Alzugaray L. ⚽, Ramirez Leon B. J. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Arce A. ⚽, Ramirez Leon B. J. (A),
21', Ramirez Leon B. J. 🟥,
21', Castillo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ortiz J. ↓, Cano L. ↑,
54', 0 - 3, Arce A. ⚽, Gruezo C. (A),
58', Alzugaray L. ↓, Quintero J. ↑,
60', Requena J. ↓, Fioravanti L. ↑,
60', Saggiomo D. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
67', 1 - 3, Hernandez N. ⚽,
69', Sosa C. ↓, Duarte Arias J. D. ↑,
69', Arce A. ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
77', Gruezo C. 🟨,
77', Cova M. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
82', de la Cruz D. I. ↓, Villamil G. ↑,
83', Cornejo F. ↓, Erique Villigua Y. H. ↑,
88', Minda K. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 3, Castillo B. ⚽, Hernandez N. (A),
90+6', Villamil G. 🟨,
90+6', Vivas C. 🟥,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Deportivo Táchira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Deportivo Táchira has had a series of away games.

LDU Quito might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Deportivo Táchira: Balza J. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in LDU Quito: Dominguez A. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Deportivo Táchira: Acevedo L. (Knee Injury) Castillo J. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Táchira won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Táchira
Venezuelan Primera Division
02.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Carabobo - Deportivo Táchira	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.25	Central Córdoba - Deportivo Táchira	2:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.04.25	Deportivo Táchira - Yaracuyanos	4:0 ✺
13.04.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Deportivo Táchira	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWL
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.25	LDU Quito - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
26.04.25	Manta - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	LDU Quito - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.25	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	3:1 ✺
14.04.25	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Táchira	2:0

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