Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 13

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Mushuc Runa		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.35	Watch
	3.05	3.35	2.41
	2.93	3.28	2.39	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	2.92	3.26	2.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.89)	3.23 ↑ (3.14)	2.36 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
32%

Draw
28.7%

LDU Quito
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

29%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mushuc Runa: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 26. Peralta K. 12. Carabali F. 6. Negro B. 2. Flor F. 99. Angulo C. 23. Lemos L. 5. Davila E. 77. Velasco K. 30. Ibarra R. 81. Castelli F.	1. Valle G. (G) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 4. Ade R. (C) 44. Segovia L. 23. Quinonez Y. 20. Cornejo F. 8. Pretell J. 33. Quinonez L. 9. Medina J. 11. Estrada M. 99. Luna Tobar C.
Substitutes
19. Carcelen J. 9. Carrillo R. 15. Cela A. 11. Dibble N. 44. Gamboa M. 18. Gonzalez J. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 10. Mina F. 7. Minda T. 32. Orejuela C. 42. Pabon W. (G) 8. Zambrano A.	10. Alvarado A. 26. Caicedo J. 24. Calle J. 21. Castillo E. 16. Deyverson 22. Dominguez A. (G) 32. Gomez A. 27. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 14. Quintero J. 7. Redes R. 15. Villamil G.
Coaches
Velez P.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Flor F. 🟨,
37', Ade R. 🟨,
37', Carabali F. 🟨,
44', Quinonez Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Medina J. ↓, Redes R. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Cornejo F. ⚽, Luna Tobar C. (A),
64', Flor F. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
66', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Quintero J. ↑,
68', Quintero J. 🟨,
70', Cornejo F. ↓, Villamil G. ↑,
71', Estrada M. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
71', Lemos L. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
76', Deyverson 🟨,
77', Ibarra R. ↓, Mina F. ↑,
78', 0 - 2, Deyverson ⚽, Redes R. (A),
81', 0 - 3, Deyverson ⚽, Pretell J. (A),
84', Quinonez Y. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
90+3', Carrillo R. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 3, Carrillo R. ⚽, Velasco K. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.

In recent matches, Mushuc Runa has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

LDU Quito is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:36. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1.1:1.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	LDU Quito	31	14	7	10	33:25	8	49

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Delfín - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca	4:1 ✺
22.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mushuc Runa - Manta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWW
- LDU Quito
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.05.26	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Lanús - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.08.25	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	2:1
14.04.25	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:0
26.10.24	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	1:1
04.05.24	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	0:1
02.12.23	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	3:1
17.06.23	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	2:2
09.09.22	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:2

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