Match Info

Championship - Round 3

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Football Plus
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Derby County		Bristol City

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.5
	3.05	3.05	2.51	Watch
	3.13	3.13	2.54
	12.57	4.18	1.34	Watch
	3	3.25	2.38
	3.34	3.08	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.41 ↑ (2.6)	3.28 ↑ (3.16)	2.32 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
23.5%

Draw
31.7%

Bristol City
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

30%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

31.9%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bristol City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bristol City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	28.6%	42.9%

Derby County - Bristol City Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). Bristol City will win (votes: 9 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol City: 21.7% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Bristol City (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bristol City (1.72) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Derby (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Bristol City (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 28. Sanderson D. 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 24. Nyambe R. 16. Thompson L. 18. Ozoh D. 20. Elder C. 32. Adams E. (C) 14. Weimann A. 9. Morris C.	23. Vitek R. (G) 16. Dickie R. 14. Vyner Z. 5. Atkinson R. 17. Sykes M. 12. Knight J. (C) 4. Randell A. 2. McCrorie R. 10. Twine S. 11. Mehmeti A. 18. Riis E.
Substitutes
10. Brewster R. 42. Clark B. 3. Forsyth C. 17. Goudmijn K. 19. Jackson K. 8. Osborn B. 21. Rooney J. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	30. Armstrong S. 20. Bell S. 6. Bird M. 27. Cornick H. 7. Hirakawa Y. 13. Lumley J. (G) 9. Mayulu F. 24. Roberts H. 19. Tanner G.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Struber G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Twine S. ⚽, Sykes M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Riis E. ↓, Armstrong S. ↑,
59', Weimann A. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
59', Nyambe R. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
59', Thompson L. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
65', Widell Zetterstrom J. 🟨,
70', Batth D. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
70', Ozoh D. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
72', Randell A. ↓, Bird M. ↑,
74', Adams E. 🟨,
86', 1 - 1, Morris C. ⚽,
90+3', Morris C. 🟨,
90+4', Twine S. ↓, Hirakawa Y. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.

In recent matches, Derby has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bristol City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Hernia) Langas S. (Knee Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bristol City: McNally L. (Knee Injury) O'Leary M. (Knee Injury) Pring C. (Ankle Injury) Williams J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:23. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
16.08.25	Derby County - Coventry City	3:5 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
09.08.25	Stoke City - Derby County	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Derby County - Atromitos Athens	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Solihull Moors - Derby County	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWLWW
- Bristol City
English League Championship
16.08.25	Bristol City - Charlton Athletic	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Bristol City - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0 ✺
English League Championship
09.08.25	Sheffield United - Bristol City	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Bristol City - Valladolid	4:0 ✺
26.07.25	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.01.25	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0
31.08.24	Derby County - Bristol City	3:0
23.04.22	Derby County - Bristol City	1:3
04.12.21	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0
30.01.21	Derby County - Bristol City	1:0
21.11.20	Bristol City - Derby County	1:0
12.02.20	Bristol City - Derby County	3:2

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