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Current Win Probability
Derby County 21.6%
Draw 30.1%
Coventry City 48.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34.1%
29.4%
36.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.1%
31.2%
38.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
Coventry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Coventry City's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+10.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coventry City than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Coventry City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
44%
16%
40%
Derby County - Coventry City Predictions
Users Predictions:
24 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 10 - 41.7%). Coventry will win (votes: 10 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 22% – 61.4%.
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 28. Sanderson D. 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 24. Nyambe R. 16. Thompson L. 18. Ozoh D. 20. Elder C. 32. Adams E. (C) 19. Jackson K. 9. Morris C.
19. Rushworth C. (G) 27. van Ewijk M. 4. Thomas B. 15. Kitching L. (C) 3. Dasilva J. 29. Torp V. 6. Grimes M. 10. Mason-Clark E. 5. Rudoni J. 11. Wright H. 23. Thomas-Asante B.
Substitutes
39. Brown D. 42. Clark B. 3. Forsyth C. 17. Goudmijn K. 8. Osborn B. 21. Rooney J. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 14. Weimann A.
8. Allen J. 54. Andrews K. 21. Bidwell J. 17. Borges Rodrigues R. 33. Brau M. 20. Kesler-Hayden K. 36. Obikwu J. 9. Simms E. 13. Wilson B. (G)
Coaches
Eustace J.
Lampard F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Thomas B. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Elder C. ⚽,
25', 1 - 2, Wright H. (Pen),
45+1', Clarke M. 🟨,
45+1', Thomas-Asante B. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 2, Morris C. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
50', 3 - 2, Adams E. ⚽,
55', Grimes M. 🟨,
62', Nyambe R. 🟨,
72', 3 - 3, Thomas-Asante B. ⚽,
75', 3 - 4, Mason-Clark E. ⚽, van Ewijk M. (A),
76', Wright H. 🟨,
79', 3 - 5, Torp V. ⚽, van Ewijk M. (A),
81', Batth D. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
81', Ozoh D. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
81', Jackson K. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
83', van Ewijk M. 🟨,
84', Thompson L. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
89', Nyambe R. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
90+1', Mason-Clark E. ↓, Kesler-Hayden K. ↑,
90+1', Wright H. ↓, Simms E. ↑,
90+5', Torp V. ↓, Allen J. ↑,
90+7', Thomas-Asante B. ↓, Borges Rodrigues R. ↑,
90+9', Rushworth C. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.
In recent matches, Derby has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Coventry is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.
Recently, Coventry has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P.
(Hernia)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Knee Injury)
Wilson K.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Coventry: Dovin O.
(Knee Injury)
Sheaf B.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Derby won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
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Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 
Sanderson D. 
Nyambe R. 
Elder C. 
Adams E. (C) 
van Ewijk M. 
Dasilva J. 
Torp V. 
Wright H. 
Thomas-Asante B. 
Brown D. 
Forsyth C. 
Weimann A. 
Brau M. 
Obikwu J. 
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