Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: The Hawthorns (West Bromwich)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)


	West Bromwich Albion		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.75
	1.82	3.46	4.69
	1.83	3.45	4.98
	1.84	2.68	6.72	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.5
	1.79	3.54	4.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 (1.8)	3.33 ↓ (3.51)	5.02 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

West Bromwich Albion
52.7%

Draw
28.4%

Derby County
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

26.9%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.6%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

West Bromwich Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for West Bromwich Albion than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

West Bromwich Albion - Derby County Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - West Bromwich (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: West Bromwich Albion will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): West Bromwich Albion will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. West Bromwich (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Griffiths J. (G) 6. Campbell G. 3. Phillips N. 2. Mepham C. 4. Styles C. 8. Molumby J. 27. Mowatt A. 7. Wallace J. (C) 21. Price I. 11. Johnston M. 19. Heggebo A.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 5. Clarke M. 22. Johnston M. 28. Sanderson D. 20. Elder C. 27. Travis L. (C) 42. Clark B. 3. Forsyth C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 32. Adams E. 9. Morris C.
Substitutes
37. Bostock O. 13. Collyer T. 17. Diakite O. 14. Gilchrist A. 22. Iling Junior S. 9. Maja J. 29. Taylor C. 23. Wildsmith J. (G) 45. Zappino M. (G)	7. Agyemang P. 4. Batth D. 19. Jackson K. 24. Nyambe R. 18. Ozoh D. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Mason R.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Travis L. 🟨,
62', Styles C. 🟨,
70', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
74', Wallace J. ↓, Iling Junior S. ↑,
74', Mowatt A. ↓, Collyer T. ↑,
81', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
83', Johnston M. ↓, Maja J. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Weimann A. ⚽, Agyemang P. (A),
89', Sanderson D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, West Bromwich won 0.

West Bromwich is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Derby has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, West Bromwich is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in West Bromwich: Bany T. (Muscle Injury) Dike D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Hernia) Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Ebuka C. (Injury) Langas S. (Knee Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, West Bromwich won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, West Bromwich won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

West Bromwich Albion - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.55%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- West Bromwich Albion
English League Championship
30.08.25	Stoke City - West Bromwich Albion	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Wrexham - West Bromwich Albion	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Championship
09.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWLW
- Derby County
English League Championship
30.08.25	Ipswich Town - Derby County	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
22.08.25	Derby County - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Derby County - Coventry City	3:5 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
12.08.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	1:2 penalties
English League Championship
21.04.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	1:3
26.12.24	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	2:1
English League Cup
23.08.22	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	1:0
English League Championship
27.12.21	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	1:0
14.09.21	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	0:0
08.07.20	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	2:0

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