Match Info

Championship - Round 1

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+


	Stoke City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3.1
	2.23	3.17	3.46	Watch
	2.14	3.26	3.87
	2.13	2.97	3.88	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.31	3.13	3.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.17)	3.13 ↓ (3.3)	3.48 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Stoke City
42.7%

Draw
30.2%

Derby County
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	60%	5%

Stoke City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Derby (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johansson V. (G) 22. Tchamadeu J. 18. Lawal B. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 3. Cresswell A. 4. Pearson B. 8. Baker L. 10. Bae J. 42. Manhoef M. 9. Mubama D. 7. Thomas S.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 4. Batth D. 5. Clarke M. 3. Forsyth C. 16. Thompson L. 17. Goudmijn K. 32. Adams E. (C) 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 19. Jackson K. 9. Morris C.
Substitutes
17. Bocat E. 13. Bonham J. (G) 11. Bozenik R. 14. Donley J. 56. Fawunmi F. 23. Gibson B. 57. Mears J. 26. Phillips A. 12. Seko T.	39. Brown D. 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 8. Osborn B. 18. Ozoh D. 21. Rooney J. 28. Sanderson D. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Robins M.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Thompson L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', Jackson K. 🟨,
60', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Blackett-Taylor C. (A),
67', Goudmijn K. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Baker L. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
73', Manhoef M. ↓, Donley J. ↑,
74', Lawal B. ↓, Phillips A. ↑,
78', Wilmot B. 🟨,
80', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
84', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
90+4', Jackson K. ↓, Sanderson D. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Mubama D. ⚽, Seko T. (A),
90+8', 3 - 1, Thomas S. ⚽, Donley J. (A),
90+9', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.

Derby is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Stoke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.

Stoke is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Stoke City - Burnley	1:0 ✺
26.07.25	Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Crewe Alexandra - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
16.07.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Stoke City	3:1 ✺
English League Championship
03.05.25	Derby County - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WTWLT
- Derby County
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Derby County - Atromitos Athens	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Solihull Moors - Derby County	2:4 ✺
26.07.25	Burton Albion - Derby County	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Walsall - Derby County	2:3 ✺
18.07.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Derby County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
03.05.25	Derby County - Stoke City	0:0
02.11.24	Stoke City - Derby County	2:1
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Derby County - Stoke City	3:0
English League Championship
30.12.21	Stoke City - Derby County	1:2
18.09.21	Derby County - Stoke City	2:1
20.03.21	Stoke City - Derby County	1:0
12.12.20	Derby County - Stoke City	0:0

Upcoming Matches