Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 16 July 2026, Thursday

Location: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry)

Referee: Sabotic J. (Lux)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Derry City		CSKA Sofia

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	1.90	Watch
	3.60	3.75	1.95
	3.60	4.00	1.83	Watch
	3.74	3.81	1.90
	3.8	4	1.82	Watch
	3.65	3.70	1.76
	3.80	3.88	1.83	Watch
	3.70	3.70	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↓ (4.05)	3.82 ↓ (4)	1.86 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derry City
25.5%

Draw
24.3%

CSKA Sofia
50.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

23.3%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

22.8%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

CSKA Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA Sofia than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	11.7%	83.3%

Derry City - CSKA Sofia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.52) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: CSKA Sofia will win (48 of 57 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.74% – 93.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): CSKA Sofia will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maher B. (G) 22. Barr C. 25. Grogan C. 3. McClean P. 19. Fleming B. 8. O'Reilly A. 28. Olayinka J. 14. Chapman E. 2. Cotter B. 7. Duffy M. (C) 21. Santos K.	25. Evtimov D. (G) 14. Ivanov T. 30. Panayotov P. 32. Rodriguez F. 2. Pastor 94. Solet I. 6. Jordao B. (C) 8. Sensi S. 17. Martino A. 28. Pittas I. 9. Godoy L.
Substitutes
26. Callister S. (G) 15. Clarke J. 32. Doherty T. 23. Dummigan C. 35. Kelly L. 16. McClean J. 13. Norcott T. (G) 6. Slevin R. 4. Stott J. 17. Twisk N.	11. Brahimi M. 80. Chorbadzhiyski G. B. 99. Eto'o J. 5. Gbamin J. 34. Kaymakanov V. 38. Leo Pereira 31. Nikolov D. (G) 3. Ouorou T. 77. Piedrahita A. 91. Tunchev A. 19. Yordanov A. 10. Zwarts J.
Coaches
Lynch T.	Yanev H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Santos K. ↓, Twisk N. ↑,
46', Martino A. 🟨,
47', 1 - 0, Chapman E. ⚽, Fleming B. (A),
58', Godoy L. ↓, Zwarts J. ↑,
58', Panayotov P. ↓, Eto'o J. ↑,
64', Ivanov T. 🟨,
66', Solet I. ↓, Gbamin J. ↑,
66', Chapman E. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
67', Grogan C. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Pittas I. ⚽, Evtimov D. (A),
77', Grogan C. ↓, Stott J. ↑,
77', Olayinka J. ↓, Dummigan C. ↑,
82', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
90+13', Sensi S. 🟨,
90+16', Pittas I. ↓, Brahimi M. ↑,
90+18', 1 - 2, Cotter B. (Own goal),

Preview

First leg result: 2-3.

Derry is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

CSKA Sofia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Derry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, CSKA Sofia is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Derry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	CSKA Sofia - Derry City	3:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
03.07.26	Derry City - Waterford	2:4 ✺
26.06.26	Derry City - Drogheda United	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Shamrock Rovers - Derry City	1:1 ✺
19.06.26	Galway United - Derry City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWTL
- CSKA Sofia
UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	CSKA Sofia - Derry City	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.06.26	Odra Opole - CSKA Sofia	2:3 ✺
24.06.26	CSKA Sofia - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:4 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.05.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA Sofia	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
20.05.26	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - CSKA Sofia	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	CSKA Sofia - Derry City	3:2

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