Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 9 July 2026, Thursday

Location: National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	CSKA Sofia		Derry City

	1	X	2
	1.2	6	11	Watch
	1.23	6.50	12.00
	1.21	5.4	12.5	Watch
	1.21	6.12	19.13
	1.2	6.53	13.33	Watch
	1.17	5.8	18
	1.25	6.33	11	Watch
	1.22	6	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.32)	6.09 ↑ (4.8)	13.5 ↑ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CSKA Sofia
77.6%

Draw
15.4%

Derry City
7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

19.3%

10.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

15.6%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CSKA Sofia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in CSKA Sofia's performance.

Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CSKA Sofia than the current prediction. (-20.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CSKA Sofia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

CSKA Sofia - Derry City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. CSKA Sofia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.28) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Derry (7.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: CSKA Sofia will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. CSKA Sofia (votes: 1 - 50%). Derry (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lapoukhov F. (G) 2. Pastor 32. Rodriguez F. 14. Ivanov T. 17. Martino A. 30. Panayotov P. 6. Jordao B. (C) 8. Sensi S. 9. Godoy L. 94. Solet I. 28. Pittas I.	1. Maher B. (G) 22. Barr C. 25. Grogan C. 3. McClean P. 6. Slevin R. 2. Cotter B. 28. Olayinka J. 23. Dummigan C. 7. Duffy M. (C) 27. Boyce L. 14. Chapman E.
Substitutes
11. Brahimi M. 80. Chorbadzhiyski G. B. 99. Eto'o J. 25. Evtimov D. (G) 5. Gbamin J. 34. Kaymakanov V. 38. Leo Pereira 3. Ouorou T. 77. Piedrahita A. 91. Tunchev A. 19. Yordanov A. 10. Zwarts J.	26. Callister S. (G) 32. Doherty T. 35. Kelly L. 16. McClean J. 13. Norcott T. (G) 21. Santos K. 4. Stott J. 17. Twisk N. 20. Winchester C.
Coaches
Yanev H.	Lynch T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Pittas I. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Boyce L. ⚽, Duffy M. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Jordao B. ⚽, Sensi S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 3 - 1, Pittas I. ⚽, Pastor (A),
64', Dummigan C. ↓, Twisk N. ↑,
71', Grogan C. ↓, Stott J. ↑,
72', Godoy L. ↓, Zwarts J. ↑,
72', Solet I. ↓, Brahimi M. ↑,
75', Cotter B. 🟨,
83', Slevin R. ↓, McClean J. ↑,
85', Sensi S. ↓, Piedrahita A. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Olayinka J. ⚽, McClean P. (A),

Preview

First leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Derry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, CSKA Sofia has had a series of away games.

In this match, CSKA Sofia is the obvious favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CSKA Sofia
Club Friendly
28.06.26	Odra Opole - CSKA Sofia	2:3 ✺
24.06.26	CSKA Sofia - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:4 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.05.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA Sofia	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
20.05.26	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - CSKA Sofia	1:2 penalties ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
16.05.26	Levski Sofia - CSKA Sofia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLWL
- Derry City
Irish Premier Division
03.07.26	Derry City - Waterford	2:4 ✺
26.06.26	Derry City - Drogheda United	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Shamrock Rovers - Derry City	1:1 ✺
19.06.26	Galway United - Derry City	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Derry City - Bohemians Dublin	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTLW

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