Match Info

Premier Division - Round 23

Date: 3 July 2026, Friday

Location: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry)

Referee: Toland D. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	LOI TV


	Derry City		Waterford

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.20	6.25	Watch
	1.46	4.20	6.00
	1.43	4.35	6.75
	1.50	4.48	6.78
	1.45	4.69	6.65	Watch
	1.48	4.25	6.65
	1.49	4.22	6.27	Watch
	1.45	4.20	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 (1.47)	4.32 ↓ (4.47)	6.39 ↓ (6.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derry City
63.7%

Draw
21.6%

Waterford
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

21.2%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

20.5%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Waterford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waterford than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

Derry City - Waterford Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Derry (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Derry City will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maher B. (G) 2. Cotter B. 22. Barr C. 3. McClean P. 19. Fleming B. 23. Dummigan C. 16. McClean J. 8. O'Reilly A. 28. Olayinka J. 7. Duffy M. (C) 27. Boyce L.	1. McMullan S. (G) 16. Cann H. 5. Mahon J. 13. Long K. 2. Houston J. 19. Glenfield S. 4. Johnson W. 3. Couto B. 10. Noonan C. 18. Lonergan T. 9. Amond P. (C)
Substitutes
32. Doherty T. 31. Downey C. 35. Kelly L. 13. Norcott T. (G) 33. O'Brien O. 34. O'Donnell C. 21. Santos K. 6. Slevin R. 20. Winchester C.	32. Amedu G. 11. Coyle T. 14. Dempsey J. 21. Doherty A. (G) 17. Faria J. 15. Heeney L. 22. Mansfield R. 27. McMenamy D. 20. Voilas J.
Coaches
Lynch T.	Coughlan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Barr C. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Lonergan T. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
56', McClean J. ↓, Slevin R. ↑,
67', McClean P. 🟨,
69', 0 - 2, Lonergan T. ⚽,
74', Couto B. 🟨,
74', Johnson W. ↓, McMenamy D. ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Amond P. ⚽, Cann H. (A),
78', Houston J. ↓, Voilas J. ↑,
78', Boyce L. ↓, Doherty T. ↑,
78', Glenfield S. ↓, Heeney L. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Slevin R. ⚽, Duffy M. (A),
85', 2 - 3, O'Reilly A. ⚽, Dummigan C. (A),
86', Noonan C. ↓, Coyle T. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 4, Voilas J. ⚽, Lonergan T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derry won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Derry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Derry is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derry won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 46:24. (average 2.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Derry won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 32:12. (average 2.9:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Derry City	32	9	14	9	45:42	3	41
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	44:54	-10	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
Irish Premier Division
26.06.26	Derry City - Drogheda United	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Shamrock Rovers - Derry City	1:1 ✺
19.06.26	Galway United - Derry City	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Derry City - Bohemians Dublin	4:1 ✺
29.05.26	Dundalk - Derry City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTLWL
- Waterford FC
Irish Premier Division
26.06.26	Dundalk - Waterford	2:3 ✺
19.06.26	Waterford - Shamrock Rovers	0:2 ✺
12.06.26	Waterford - Sligo Rovers	4:0 ✺
29.05.26	Drogheda United - Waterford	3:3 ✺
22.05.26	Shelbourne - Waterford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
15.05.26	Waterford - Derry City	2:2
27.02.26	Derry City - Waterford	4:2
17.10.25	Waterford - Derry City	1:2
04.07.25	Derry City - Waterford	7:2
25.04.25	Waterford - Derry City	2:1
28.02.25	Derry City - Waterford	1:2
23.08.24	Waterford - Derry City	0:1

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