Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Derthona		Vado

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.1	1.98
	3.49	3.16	2.04	Watch
	3.5	2.88	2
	3.56	3.08	2.02
	3.6	3.1	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↓ (3.85)	3.06 ↓ (3.38)	2.01 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derthona
25.6%

Draw
29.4%

Vado
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

26.9%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

26.4%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derthona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Vado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derthona than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vado than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vado could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Derthona - Vado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Alfiero V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group A (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derthona won 0.

Recent performances by Derthona have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vado is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vado is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Derthona won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Derthona won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Derthona FbC	6	3	2	1	7:6	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derthona FBC
Italian Serie D - Group A
11.01.26	Sestri Levante - Derthona	4:0 ✺
04.01.26	Derthona - Club Milano	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Derthona - Saluzzo	1:3 ✺
14.12.25	Imperia - Derthona	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Derthona - Varese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL
- FC Vado
Italian Serie D - Group A
11.01.26	Vado - Asti	3:2 ✺
04.01.26	Unione Sanremo - Vado	3:0 ✺
21.12.25	Biellese - Vado	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Vado - NovaRomentin	6:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cairese - Vado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
20.09.25	Vado - Derthona	1:0
04.05.25	Derthona - Vado	0:2
21.12.24	Vado - Derthona	1:0
10.03.24	Derthona - Vado	0:2
01.11.23	Vado - Derthona	2:2
08.01.23	Derthona - Vado	0:0
04.09.22	Vado - Derthona	2:2

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