Match Info

ITALY: SERIE D - GROUP B - ROUND 19

Date: 20 December 2023, Wednesday


	Desenzano Calvina		Caravaggio

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.4	3.3
	1.95	3.49	3.24
	2	3.32	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.39)	3.4 ↑ (3.29)	3.29 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
46.2%

Draw
26.4%

Caravaggio
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

27.4%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

27.8%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Desenzano Calvina's performance.

Caravaggio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caravaggio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Desenzano Calvina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caravaggio than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caravaggio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 8 and 10).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Caravaggio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Desenzano won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Desenzano won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group B
16.12.23	Arconatese - Desenzano Calvina	1:3 ✺
10.12.23	Desenzano Calvina - Tritium	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
26.11.23	Desenzano Calvina - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
19.11.23	Villa Valle - Desenzano Calvina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWTL
- USD Caravaggio
Italian Serie D - Group B
17.12.23	Caravaggio - Pro Palazzolo	0:3 ✺
10.12.23	Arconatese - Caravaggio	3:0 ✺
03.12.23	Tritium - Caravaggio	0:1 ✺
26.11.23	Caravaggio - Clivense	0:0 ✺
19.11.23	Casatese - Caravaggio	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
20.03.22	Desenzano Calvina - Caravaggio	2:1
19.09.21	Caravaggio - Desenzano Calvina	3:2
02.05.21	Desenzano Calvina - Caravaggio	3:1
17.01.21	Caravaggio - Desenzano Calvina	0:3

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