Match Info

Premier League - Round 38

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday


	Dire Dawa City		Arba Minch

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.20	3.10
	1.65	3.55	4.35
	1.65	3.89	4
	2.65	2.92	2.54
	1.66	3.5	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.48)	3.41 ↑ (2.83)	3.66 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 11.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dire Dawa City
47.7%

Draw
27%

Arba Minch
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

31.6%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

31.3%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dire Dawa City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dire Dawa City's performance.

Arba Minch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arba Minch might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dire Dawa City than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dire Dawa City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arba Minch could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dire Dawa City - Arba Minch Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Meskele M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 1 - 1, Tunjo A. ⚽,
82', 2 - 1, Abdisa J. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dire Dawa won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Dire Dawa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dire Dawa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Dire Dawa City - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 36.13%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Arba Minch - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 32.23%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dire Dawa City
Ethiopian Premier League
27.06.26	Hadiya Hossana - Dire Dawa City	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Dire Dawa City - Sheger Ketema	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Dire Dawa City - Saint George	1:2 ✺
20.05.26	Ethio Electric - Dire Dawa City	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	Dire Dawa City - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWLTL
- Arba Minch FC
Ethiopian Premier League
26.06.26	Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat	0:1 ✺
22.06.26	Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Arba Minch - Shire Endaselassie	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Mechal - Arba Minch	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Arba Minch - Sidama Coffee	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
06.02.26	Arba Minch - Dire Dawa City	1:1
17.05.25	Dire Dawa City - Arba Minch	1:0
29.06.23	Arba Minch - Dire Dawa City	0:1
16.02.23	Dire Dawa City - Arba Minch	1:3
19.06.22	Dire Dawa City - Arba Minch	0:3
11.02.22	Arba Minch - Dire Dawa City	0:0

Dire Dawa City - Arba Minch: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide