Match Info

SCOTLAND: Challenge Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: East End Park (Dunfermline)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	parstv.co.uk
Usa	Pars TV


	Dunfermline Athletic		Alloa Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	4.5
	1.63	3.5	4.5
	1.68	3.6	5
	1.69	3.45	5.8
	1.74	3.29	4.78	Watch
	1.62	3.6	4.6
	1.69	3.62	4.7
	1.68	3.6	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.39)	3.56 ↑ (3.25)	4.86 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunfermline Athletic
55.1%

Draw
25.9%

Alloa Athletic
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

27.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

29.6%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dunfermline Athletic's performance.

Alloa Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alloa Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dunfermline Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alloa Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.1%	5.2%	1.7%

Dunfermline Athletic - Alloa Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 53 - 93%). Alloa will win (votes: 1 - 1.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dunfermline: 86.4% – 99.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Oluwayemi T. (G) 2. Comrie A. 5. Hamilton C. 4. Benedictus K. (C) 3. Ngwenya K. 6. Otoo E. 8. Chalmers J. 7. Ritchie-Hosler K. 10. Todd M. 11. McCann L. 62. Mebude D.	1. Ogayi T. (G) 2. Taggart S. 15. McKay D. 6. Neill M. 17. Thomson K. 14. Virtanen M. 12. Scougall S. 19. Buchanan S. 9. Donnelly L. 20. O'Donnell C. 24. Rankin L.
Substitutes
22. Clay C. 33. Cooper J. 15. Fisher S. 16. Fogarty T. 1. Mehmet D. (G) 24. Sutherland T. 9. Wighton C. 19. Wotherspoon D. 25. Young S.	7. Cawley K. 5. Graham A. 4. Hetherington S. 10. Honeyman S. 31. Morrison P. (G) 11. Nevans S. 18. Sammon C. 16. Watkins L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', McKay D. 🟨,
30', Scougall S. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, McCann L. ⚽, Ngwenya K. (A),
41', O'Donnell C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Buchanan S. ↓, Hetherington S. ↑,
62', Virtanen M. ↓, Cawley K. ↑,
67', Mebude D. ↓, Wighton C. ↑,
68', Todd M. ↓, Cooper J. ↑,
77', Rankin L. ↓, Sammon C. ↑,
77', O'Donnell C. ↓, Honeyman S. ↑,
79', McCann L. ↓, Sutherland T. ↑,
79', Ritchie-Hosler K. ↓, Fisher S. ↑,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
09.11.24	Queens Park - Dunfermline Athletic	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Dunfermline Athletic - Partick Thistle	0:1 ✺
29.10.24	Dunfermline Athletic - Livingston	3:0 ✺
26.10.24	Falkirk - Dunfermline Athletic	2:1 ✺
19.10.24	Dunfermline Athletic - Greenock Morton	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWLT
- Alloa Athletic
Scottish League One
09.11.24	Queen of the South - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
02.11.24	Alloa Athletic - Annan Athletic	5:0 ✺
26.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	0:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
11.07.23	Alloa Athletic - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1
Scottish League One
06.05.23	Alloa Athletic - Dunfermline Athletic	0:2
04.03.23	Dunfermline Athletic - Alloa Athletic	2:0
08.10.22	Alloa Athletic - Dunfermline Athletic	0:3
30.07.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Alloa Athletic	1:0
Scottish League Cup
23.07.22	Dunfermline Athletic - Alloa Athletic	1:2 penalties
Scottish Football Championship
30.04.21	Alloa Athletic - Dunfermline Athletic	1:0

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