Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Dynamo Dresden		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.6	2.1	Watch
	3.35	3.55	2.08
	3.2	3.5	2.11
	3.42	3.67	2.16
	3.3	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.32	3.6	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (3.34)	3.55 ↑ (3.44)	2.11 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dynamo Dresden
28.5%

Draw
26.7%

St. Pauli
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

27%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

20.6%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Dresden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dynamo Dresden that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St. Pauli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dynamo Dresden - St. Pauli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion)).

Dynamo Dresden has the most likely position - 16 (41.02%), has project points - 36, has currently - 26, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

St. Pauli has the most likely position - 3 (21.04%), has project points - 59, has currently - 47, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of promoted (39%), has a small chance of win league (14%).

This event has quality 31, importance 60, match rating 46. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dynamo Dresden won 1.

Dynamo Dresden is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches St. Pauli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dynamo Dresden could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

St. Pauli will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Dynamo Dresden won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 19-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Dynamo Dresden won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dynamo Dresden
German 2 Bundesliga
06.03.22	Werder Bremen - Dynamo Dresden	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Dynamo Dresden - Darmstadt	0:1 ✺
18.02.22	Dynamo Dresden - Heidenheim	1:1 ✺
12.02.22	Paderborn - Dynamo Dresden	0:0 ✺
06.02.22	Dynamo Dresden - Hansa Rostock	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTTL
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
05.03.22	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
01.03.22	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
26.02.22	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	1:3 ✺
20.02.22	St. Pauli - Hannover	0:3 ✺
12.02.22	Jahn Regensburg - St. Pauli	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
27.10.21	Dynamo Dresden - St. Pauli	2:3 ET
German 2 Bundesliga
03.10.21	St. Pauli - Dynamo Dresden	3:0
14.02.20	St. Pauli - Dynamo Dresden	0:0
31.08.19	Dynamo Dresden - St. Pauli	3:3
03.05.19	Dynamo Dresden - St. Pauli	2:1
01.12.18	St. Pauli - Dynamo Dresden	1:1
25.01.18	Dynamo Dresden - St. Pauli	1:3

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