Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Union Berlin		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.75	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.95	Watch
	2.19	3.23	3.87
	2.05	3.23	4.01	Watch
	2.05	3	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.28	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.12)	3.18 ↓ (3.32)	3.85 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
45.3%

Draw
30%

St. Pauli
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.6%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

29.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.4%	25.8%	25.8%

Union Berlin - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 15 - 48.4%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 8 - 25.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 30.8% – 66%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Union Berlin will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 19. Haberer J. 13. Schafer A. 8. Khedira R. (C) 39. Kohn D. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 7. Burke O. 23. Ilic A.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 28. Pereira Lage M. 10. Sinani D. 16. Fujita J. 19. Kaars M.
Substitutes
10. Ansah I. 9. Burcu L. 18. Juranovic J. 6. Kemlein A. 25. Klaus C. (G) 33. Kral A. 15. Rothe T. 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C.	9. Ceesay A. 18. Hara T. 27. Hountondji A. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 1 - 1, Ilic A. ⚽, Kohn D. (A),
60', Kaars M. ↓, Hountondji A. ↑,
73', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Kral A. ↑,
74', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
81', Kohn D. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
81', Burke O. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
86', Irvine J. 🟨,
90', Rasmussen M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
90+4', Irvine J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

St. Pauli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Union Berlin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Raab M. (Hand Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Ando T. (Muscle Injury) Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Saliakas M. (Thigh Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury) Smith E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:27. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:11. (average 2.4:1.1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Last Results with these Odds

St. Pauli - the odds 3.58 are the expected chance of winning is 26.55%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLLW
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.11.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	0:1
26.01.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	3:0
30.08.24	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:0
Club Friendly
21.12.22	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	3:2
German DFB Pokal
01.03.22	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	2:1
German 2 Bundesliga
04.02.19	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	3:2
26.08.18	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	4:1

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