Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 12

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:30	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Usa	16:30	Fanatiz


	EC Noroeste		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.38	Watch
	2.95	2.9	2.36
	3.15	3.21	2.38
	3.06	3.09	2.42	Watch
	3	2.9	2.3
	3.14	3.14	2.43	Watch
	2.95	2.9	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.63)	3.03 ↓ (3.12)	2.38 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
30.4%

Draw
30.6%

Portuguesa
39%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

30.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for EC Noroeste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

EC Noroeste - Portuguesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Felipe Alves (G) 12. Felipe Rodrigues 44. Maycon (C) 3. Carlinhos 15. Diego Maia 11. Luiz Thiago 21. Matheus Blade 26. Dudu Miraima 37. Thiago Lopes 51. Adriano Filho 9. Carlao	1. Rafael Santos (G) 2. Alex Silva 4. Robson (C) 13. Eduardo Biazus 6. Lucas Hipolito 15. Taua 8. Barba 7. Jaja 10. Rildo 19. Maceio 9. Igor Torres
Substitutes
17. Buiu 2. Cicinho 50. DG 1. Fernando Henrique (G) 94. Jeferson Romario (G) 99. Jenison 55. Leo Costa 6. Maykon Jesus 22. Renan Araujo 52. Silva D.	12. Bruno Bertinato (G) 18. Denis 11. Everton 5. Fernando Henrique 20. Guilherme Portuga 3. Gustavo Henrique 23. Gustavo Talles 25. Iago Dias 21. Leandro 17. Matheus Nunes 14. Mauricio 16. Pedro Henrique
Coaches
Aal A.	Cauan de Almeida

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Felipe Rodrigues ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Rildo ⚽, Taua (A),
45+5', Lucas Hipolito ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Barba ↓, Denis ↑,
60', Maceio ↓, Everton ↑,
61', Matheus Blade ↓, Leo Costa ↑,
70', Jaja ↓, Guilherme Portuga ↑,
71', Robson ↓, Mauricio ↑,
82', Luiz Thiago ↓, DG ↑,
90+5', Adriano Filho ↓, Cicinho ↑,

Preview

Noroeste has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Portuguesa is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Noroeste could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	Santos - EC Noroeste	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - EC Noroeste	2:1 ✺
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Mirassol - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	EC Noroeste - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLTL
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
20.02.25	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Portuguesa - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
12.02.25	Água Santa - Portuguesa	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Portuguesa - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
04.02.25	Velo Clube - Portuguesa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTTWT

EC Noroeste - Portuguesa